By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Affected person readers, brunch ran disgracefully late at the moment, and so I’ll attempt to ship a not-disgracefully skinny Water Cooler, but it surely gained’t be instantly. Within the meantime, speak amongst yourselves! –lambert
Chicken Music of the Day
Brown Thrasher, Sully Woodlands, Fairfax, Virginia, United States. I swear I hear an airplane, someplace within the combine.
In Case You Would possibly Miss…
- Treasury nominee Bessent beneath fireplace?
- RedNote’s second to go?
- Infantry in battle.
Politics
“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are actually a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
Biden Administration
“Why Biden Could Matter” [David Leonhardt, New York Times]. “one main a part of Biden’s agenda has an honest likelihood of surviving. It was the concept that animated a lot of the laws he signed — specifically, that the federal authorities ought to take a extra lively function in each aiding and regulating the non-public sector than it did for a lot of the earlier half-century. This concept has but to amass a easy identify. The historian Gary Gerstle has known as it the tip of the neoliberal order. Felicia Wong and her colleagues on the Roosevelt Institute, a liberal suppose tank, have used the time period ‘a brand new economics.’ Jake Sullivan, a prime Biden adviser, has referred to it as a brand new consensus. I’ve described it as a part of a brand new centrism. The philosophy didn’t originate with Biden, however he meaningfully shifted the nation towards it, first as a candidate in 2020 after which as president. He moved the Democratic Get together away from a long time of assist for commerce liberalization and imposed tariffs on China. He pursued an industrial coverage to construct up sectors essential to nationwide safety (like semiconductors) or future prosperity (like clear vitality). And his administration was extra aggressive about restraining company energy than any in a long time, blocking mergers, cracking down on ‘junk charges’ and regulating drug costs…. Trump will certainly undo main components of the Biden agenda, particularly on local weather change and a few elements of company regulation. In different methods, although, Trump is a part of the shift away from neoliberalism. He romped by way of the 2016 Republican primaries partly as a result of he was extra hostile to commerce, China and cuts to Medicare and Social Safety than different Republican politicians. A few of Trump’s second-term nominees, together with for labor secretary and head of the Justice Division’s antitrust division, are hardly small-government neoliberals. Neither is Vice President-elect JD Vance.”
“Treasury decide Scott Bessent and Trump transition staff deny allegations that he prevented taxes” [NBC News]. That makes him sensible. Extra: “In a brand new memo obtained by NBC Information, Senate Finance Democratic tax workers discovered that Scott Bessent prevented over $950,000 of self-employment taxes. In a assessment of the Treasury Secretary nominee’s tax returns from 2021, 2022, and 2023 and his monetary disclosure type, the committee discovered that Bessent prevented paying $950,182 of SECA taxes (a tax on internet earnings from self-employment as a part of financing the social safety and medicare belief funds) and SALT taxes (state and native). Regardless of IRS and Tax Court docket rulings that will require Bessent to pay SECA taxes, Bessent informed the committee he maintains his place, which is that he was not responsible for SECA taxes on earnings earned by way of his hedge fund, Key Sq. Group LP, since he was a ‘state regulation restricted associate.’ The committee argued Bessent was ‘actively concerned’ in his partnership on the hedge fund, and subsequently, violated the Division of Treasury’s personal insurance policies.” • I can’t converse to the tax points concerned. However absolutely that is for the IRS to determine, not the Committee?
* * * “‘Everybody’s attempting to kiss the ring’: Trump’s inauguration devours company money, smashing data” [Politico]. “Not solely are firms giving far bigger quantities than they did to Trump’s first inauguration — once they didn’t have a agency grasp of tips on how to deal with misgivings in regards to the mercurial politician — they’re doing so in a much more public vogue, asserting the donations months earlier than they should be reported to federal regulators. ‘The stigma of a Trump donation, which was on the market to a point eight years in the past, is not there,” stated Brian Ballard, a longtime fundraiser for Trump who’s raised cash for the Presidential Inaugural Committee. ‘Who is aware of what’s going to occur two months from now? However for at the moment, up and down, company America is solidly pro-Trump.’”
* * * “Rep. Rick Crawford anticipated to function Home Intelligence chair” [Politico]. “Johnson on Wednesday eliminated former Chair Mike Turner (R-Ohio) in a transfer that shocked even some Republicans on the panel. Now he has informed those who he intends to switch him with [Rep. Rick Crawford (R-Ark.)], a low-key veteran of the Intel panel… Crawford is essentially the most senior Republican on the committee and considered as a much less hawkish decide than Turner. He additionally holds extra MAGA-friendly credentials — representing a deep pink district in Arkansas and voting towards Ukraine assist final 12 months…. However Turner enraged the laborious proper over the chaotic reauthorization of a sweeping surveillance invoice final 12 months…. Johnson, who has sole discretion in selecting the panel’s chair, cited Trump as a motive for the ouster.” • Hmm.
Realignment and Legitimacy
allegedly they’re dividing the rednote servers into mainland and foreigner subsequent week and persons are making actually unhappy posts about it 🙁 pic.twitter.com/668O9Yfd6b
— 🥉 Pipkin Pippa 🔌🐰 Section-Join (@pipkinpippa) January 15, 2025
For a short shining second, two hitherto completely unmixed social media populations — American, Chinese language — spontaneously interacting was the largest story going (and gave me some hope for humanity). It couldn’t final, sadly. (How unlucky that there was no main American politician with the flexibility to interpret — possibly for the strategic functions of the Democrat celebration, if any — the interactions between Chinese language and American youngsters on social media for a wider viewers, based mostly on repeated, direct expertise. Oh, wait….)
Syndemics
“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the deal with given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater experiences); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, thump, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep secure on the market!
Search for the Helpers
CR field makers:
Although it’s superb we’re nonetheless making CR containers by hand, 5 years into the pandemic. What a market failure!
They suggest when they need to mandate. Nonetheless:
The Maryland Division of Well being is re-recommending common masking amongst different precautions on account of rising hospitalizations for COVID and flu.
Should you’re in MD and have bother with docs masking you’ll be able to inform them of this new advice. pic.twitter.com/QYsN840epg
— Covid Warning – XEC, KP.3.1.1, LP.8.1, MC.1, LF.7 (@CovidCaution) January 16, 2025
Vaccines
I believe[T]hese arrows are shifting within the mistaken path (aside from Alaska, Connecticut, and Maine, good job):Simply extremely miserable that people spent so lengthy attempting to invent cures to ailments, succeeded towards the chances, and that progress is now being erased by a small variety of individuals spreading misinformation. pic.twitter.com/Fq0Jn5AiI3
— Michael Thomas (@curious_founder) January 14, 2025
Measles are the “M” in MMR. In different phrases, the fundamentals are beneath assault, not exotics not too long ago added to the schedule.
“They have been warned; Picks and Shovels Chapter One” [Cory Doctorow, Pluralistic]. “[I]t’s pure and proper that on the planet, there can be individuals who need to revisit the obtained knowledge and finest practices for a way we dwell our lives, regulate our financial system, and arrange our society. However not a license to easily throw out the techniques we depend on. Positive, possibly they’re outdated or pointless, however possibly not. That’s the place ‘Chesterton’s Fence” is available in:
Allow us to say, for the sake of simplicity, a fence or gate erected throughout a street. The extra trendy kind of reformer goes gaily as much as it and says, “I don’t see the usage of this; allow us to clear it away.” To which the extra clever kind of reformer will do properly to reply: “Should you don’t see the usage of it, I definitely gained’t allow you to clear it away. Go away and suppose. Then, when you’ll be able to come again and inform me that you just do see the usage of it, I could can help you destroy it.”
In different phrases, it’s not sufficient to say, “This precept will get in the best way of one thing I need to do, so let’s throw it out as a result of I’m fairly certain the inconvenience I’m experiencing is worse than the results of taking away this precept.” It is advisable have a principle of how you’ll stop the harms the precept protects us from when you tear it down…. When RFK Jr kills your youngsters with measles or completely disables them with polio, he doesn’t get to say “I used to be simply inquiring as to the efficacy of a longstanding measure, as is true and correct.” He was informed why the vaccine fence was there, and he got here up with objectively very silly the reason why that didn’t matter, after which he killed your youngsters. He was warned.” And the identical with Invoice Clinton and Glass-Steagall. Ditto crytpo.
Transmission: Covid
About fashions:
That is why I give choice to knowledge sequence which have run a very long time, ideally for the reason that starting of the pandemic: They make the baseline clear. However extra importantly, with Gregory, I deprecate being reactive (this goes for private apply and for an infection management). Set up your protocol and persist with it. If — and by “if” I imply “when” —
An infection Management
HOCL sounds actually attention-grabbing; I wasn’t conscious:
I simply discovered some cool information:
Outdated information:
Hypochlorous acid (HOCl) is a extremely efficient antimicrobial agent with a impartial to barely acidic pH (4-6), making it safer for pores and skin and surfaces whereas sustaining broad-spectrum exercise. In distinction, bleach is very alkaline (pH… https://t.co/dOLmDqQVxW— Dr. Sean Mullen (@drseanmullen) January 16, 2025
And this lengthy thread:
See the highlighted portion. Nukit is an efficient account, and granted, they’re quoting the claims of one other, however aren’t among the highlighted claims a bit over-enthusiastic? Like “tumor suppression”?
TABLE 1: Day by day Covid Charts
| Wastewater | |
| This week[1] CDC January 10 | Final week[2] CDC (till subsequent week): |
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| Variants [3] CDC December 21 | Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC January 4 |
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| Hospitalization | |
| ★ New York[5] New York State, knowledge January 14: | Nationwide [6] CDC Janurary 9: |
|
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| Positivity | |
| Nationwide[7] Walgreens January 13: | Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic January 4: |
|
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| Vacationers Knowledge | |
| Positivity[9] CDC December 23: | Variants[10] CDC December 23 |
|
|
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| Deaths | |
| Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC January 4: | Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC January 4: |
|
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|
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new at the moment; all others are usually not up to date.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) Seeing extra pink and extra orange, however nothing new at main hubs.
[2] (CDC) Final week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) XEC takes over. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has accomplished an awesome job normalizing successive waves of an infection.
[4] (ED) A bit of uptick.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Positively jumped.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Leveling out.
[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.
[8] (Cleveland) Continued upward development since, properly, Thanksgiving.
[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Leveling out.
[10] (Vacationers: Variants). Positivity is new, however variants haven’t but been launched.
[11] Deaths low, positivity leveling out.
[12] Deaths low, ED leveling out.
Stats Watch
Employment Scenario: “United States Preliminary Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “Preliminary jobless claims within the US rose by 14,000 from the earlier week to 217,000 within the interval ending January eleventh, 2024, firmly above market expectations of 210,000 to mark a pointy bounce from the upwardly revised, 11-month low touched within the first week of January.”
Manufacturing: “United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index within the US climbed to 44.3 in January 2025, its highest since April 2021, from a revised studying of -10.9 in December and higher than market forecasts of -5. That is the index’s largest month-to-month enhance since June 2020….”
Retail: “U.S. Retail Gross sales” [Trading Economics]. “Retail gross sales within the US elevated 0.4% month-over-month in December 2024, the least in 4 months, in comparison with an upwardly revised 0.8% rise in November and beneath forecasts of 0.6%. Regardless of the slowdown, the figures proceed to level to a strong shopper spending.”
Tech: I suppose Boeing’s man wasn’t obtainable?
Suchir Balaji labored as an engineer for Sam Altman constructing AI, till he determined that Altman was committing crimes. Balaji grew to become a whistleblower, and shortly after was discovered lifeless in his condo. California authorities declare it was suicide. Crime scene pictures clearly present a… pic.twitter.com/bVbiP8zShy
— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) January 15, 2025
It’s so laborious to search out respectable assist today!
Immediately’s Concern & Greed Index: 30 Concern (earlier shut: 29 Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 30 (Concern). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Jan 16 at 1:44:27 PM ET.
Musical Interlude
Prince?!
Prince performing a Led Zeppelin basic, Complete Lotta Love, dwell At The Aladdin, Las Vegas, in 2002.
He was an unimaginable musician and a really underrated guitar participant! pic.twitter.com/fMhhYkRfQi
— Rock’n Roll of All (@rocknrollofall) January 14, 2025
“The Governance Failures That Fed the Los Angeles Wildfires” [Wall Street Journal]. “There’s no disputing Mom Nature’s major function within the devastation. The Santa Ana winds accountable for the wildfires start north and east of Los Angeles within the Nice Basin, which incorporates massive sections of Utah and Nevada. As these winds journey south and west, coursing by way of the canyons and arroyos of Southern California, they drop in elevation and turn into hotter and dryer. That is nature, not man-made local weather change, at work. It’s been occurring since lengthy earlier than Los Angeles was settled. What’s modified isn’t the predictability of the fires however moderately the priorities and competence of these accountable for protecting individuals secure. Has the underbrush that fuels the fires been cleared? Have the forests been thinned? Are the reservoirs full and operational?… By Mr. Simon’s estimates, there are two colleges of thought on what’s taking part in out in his state proper now. “One is that this was actually uncommon, and no one may have foreseen it. And the opposite faculty of thought, which I’m a member of, is which you could’t have a complete reservoir that’s fully dry in a extremely populated space with an extended historical past of fires. There’s a public-policy failure someplace right here. There’s a direct connection between the negligence on the governmental degree—state, native, no matter—and loads of human struggling.” The larger downside, nevertheless, is perhaps the insularity of the state’s political institution. Mr. Newsom and Ms. Bass are liberal Democrats, as are a lot of the lawmakers in Los Angeles and Sacramento. Republicans haven’t gained a statewide race in California since 2006″ • Studying this rigorously, I can agree with all of it besides. That is nature, not man-made local weather change. First, the true property business, which websites and soecs the homes, isn’t a part of “nature” (modulo an especially holistic definition of nature). Second, I don’t suppose something is exempt from “man-made local weather change”, which could, for instance, trigger an out-of-season Santa Ana. However no less than we’ve gor some pondering in layers, even when from the son of William Simon (Nixon’s Treasury secretary). This appears to not be paywalled, and it’s price a learn.
“Neil Gaiman denies sexual assault allegations: ‘I don’t settle for there was any abuse’” [Los Angeles Times]. “Eight girls accused the 64-year-old British scribe of assault, abuse and coercion in an article printed Monday” (posted right here). Gaiman: ” I’m removed from an ideal individual, however I’ve by no means engaged in non-consensual sexual exercise with anybody. Ever.” • On reconsideration, the angle I got here away with from the Monday article was how very badly the moderately wealthy Gaiman and his spouse Amanda Palmer handled the servants; withheld fee, prpmises not saved…. “They have been careless individuals, Tom and Daisy.”
“Billionaire Robert Miller accused of being secret pedophile who preyed on ladies as younger as 11” [Daily Mail]. “Robert Miller, 81, allegedly paid minors for intercourse between 1994 and 2006 and recruited them with the help of staff from his firm, Future Electronics. This week, Quebec Superior Court docket Choose Catherine Piché dominated {that a} class motion launched by three of Miller’s alleged victims may proceed. ‘These extraordinarily critical acts allegedly befell over a number of years, once they have been between the ages of 11 and 17,’ she wrote in her choice, in line with CBA. ‘The courtroom shouldn’t, at this stage, take into account the deserves of the dispute and it ought to take the information as confirmed, except they seem inconceivable or manifestly inaccurate.’ The category motion has been launched by three girls who allege they have been victims of Miller, and likewise targets Future Electronics. If the category motion is profitable, Miller could possibly be ordered handy over as much as $150million in damages. Lawyer for the plaintiffs Jeff Orenstein informed the courtroom he’d been approached by 51 alleged victims.” • 51? That’s loads. So is 8.
Thread from historian Alexander Burns on his new e-book, Infantry in Battle, 1733-1783:
See the highlighted portion on the finish. I’m wondering if that’s true in Ukraine at the moment? Or, for that matter, Gaza?
Contact data for vegetation: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a examine if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me pictures of vegetation. Greens are advantageous! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! In order for you your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it at first of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From mrsyk:
Mrsyk writes: “This plum tomato has been frozen by way of a pair instances now. What a shade.”
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