Economics

2:00PM Water Cooler 1/8/2025 | bare capitalism

January 9, 2025
knowledge


By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Fowl Music of the Day

Brown Thrasher, Powhatan State Park, Powhatan, Virginia, United States. “This chook was singing from the identical perch at 7:00 after I arrived; this recording was made at 10:00. It was nonetheless singing after I left.”

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In Case You Would possibly Miss…

  1. LA Palisades Fireplace: That is high quality.
  2. Trump’s pivot to the Northern Hemisphere.
  3. Extra weirdness with the Vegas Tesla explosion.

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Search for the Helpers

This has occurred to me:

After which I paid it ahead as nicely. Readers?

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My e mail deal with is down by the plant; please ship examples of there (“Helpers” within the topic line). In our more and more determined and fragile neoliberal society, on a regular basis regular incidents and tales of “the communism of on a regular basis life” are what I’m searching for (and never, say, the Purple Cross in Hawaii, and even the UNWRA in Gaza).

Politics

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in actual fact a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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Trump Transition

“Trump Imagines New Sphere of U.S. Affect Stretching From Panama to Greenland” [Wall Street Journal]. Trump’s presser: “President-elect Donald Trump’s calls to take management of Greenland, Canada and the Panama Canal mirror his fascination with a Twenty first-century model of an previous thought—that nice powers ought to carve out spheres of affect and defend their financial and safety pursuits by imposing their will on smaller neighbors. In a press convention Tuesday, Trump outlined a second-term overseas coverage agenda that rests not on international alliances and free commerce however on financial coercion and unilateral navy may, even in opposition to allies. With the Panama Canal and Greenland, he advised he may use power to take them over. With Canada, he advised he would hit the U.S.’s northern neighbor with excessive tariffs, leaving it no selection however to undergo annexation. ‘Canada and america, that will actually be one thing,’ Trump stated. ‘You eliminate that artificially drawn line and also you check out what that appears like and it could even be significantly better for nationwide safety.’ Taking management of Greenland, Canada, and the Panama Canal by means of navy or financial power could be a dramatic departure from many years of U.S. overseas coverage as pursued by presidents of each events.” • This leaves out Mexico, oddly. I’ll have extra in a bit, however at first look, I’d speculate that Trump is aware of he’s received to feed his rabid canine — the nationwide safety institution — some meat. In any other case, he might be its meat. The place is the meat to be discovered? Europe? Clearly not; Ukraine is misplaced. The Center East? Letting them kill one another is one factor; boots on the bottom are one other. The pivot to Asia? With what? That leaves — and this might make James Monroe very comfortable — the north American hemisphere. Additionally, it might even be that Trump doesn’t prefer to get individuals killed, and (modulo Mexico), seizing one vassal’s territory (Greenland), invading Panama (we’ve achieved it as soon as), and dealing on splitting the Canadian Federation appears rather a lot much less ugly than a battle on the Pacific Rim, say. Who is aware of? Could possibly be only a headfake, although Trump did point out Greenland in 2020. Commentary:

[TRUMP, thinking]: “McFaul says “destroy NATO like that’s a foul factor. They don’t pay their payments, do they?”]

“To Keep away from Preventing Giant Conflicts Trump Is Creating Smaller Ones” [Moon of Alabama]. Trump’s presser: “Trump has thereby rejected the three potential conflicts, with Russia, China and Iran, that have been lengthy main the headlines. He doubtless perceives that there’s nothing to win in these. However as he has to offer some fodder for the media in addition to for his MAGA followers he’s as an alternative developing with new conflicts which could even develop into winnable.” See above; I agree that the media and MAGA want “fodder,” however I feel the nationwide safety institution — The Blob — wants “fodder” most of all. Extra: “It reminds of Ronald Reagan who created minor conflicts, like in Grenada, to be free to make offers with the Soviet ‘evil empire’ Union…. Trump desires to keep away from the bigger potential conflicts as they’re too troublesome to handle and win. He’s as an alternative creating his personal small conflicts proper subsequent to the U.S. yard. It’s a good trick and it might even see some success.” • I don’t love Trump, and I didn’t like Reagan both. However not less than Reagan didn’t get right into a proxy battle with a nuclear energy.

Helpful map:

To be truthful, neither I nor b give an account of the place an invasion of Mexico suits into this image (see Nick’s helpful publish right here). Right here, I’d speculate that Trump has to “massive stick” somephysique for credibility’s sake, and Mexican Drug Lords are an unsympathetic goal. A correct invasion of Mexico would appear to be the Philippine-American Conflict of 1898. Or Vietnam. Little doubt there are many Blobbists who would get pleasure from that, however I don’t suppose Trump must throw them meat…

“Fetterman compares Trump’s Greenland discuss to Louisiana Buy” [The Hill]. “‘There’s quite a lot of speak about Greenland, for instance, and … there’s quite a lot of freak-outs and naturally, I’d by no means assist taking it by power,’ Fetterman stated. He continued, noting it could be a ‘accountable dialog’ to debate acquisition, together with ‘simply shopping for it out.’ ‘If anybody thinks that’s bonkers, it’s like, nicely, keep in mind the Louisiana Buy?’ Fetterman stated.” • Is he improper?

The tech bro angle:


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O Canada! I shouldn’t actually publish this…

… however body 4 made me snort out loud (although is there some native coloration I ought to concentrate on right here? Canadian readers?)

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“Donald Trump shares video of Jeffrey Sachs accusing Benjamin Netanyahu of warmongering” [JFeed]. Actually not on my Bingo card! And: “Trump’s determination to publish this video, assuming he listening to the video reasonably than simply studying the textual content, which makes no point out of Netanyahu, factors to some probably severe tensions between Israel and the incoming administration concerning whether or not or to not use navy power in opposition to Iran for worry it could result in a normal battle.” • Or perhaps it’s less complicated. Maybe “By no means sh*t a sh*tter” is a motto Trump is aware of and believes. Anyhow, right here’s Trump’s publish from Reality Social:

Haaretz, although later, has the higher headline–

“‘A Deep, Darkish Son of a Bitch’: Trump Posts Video of Historian Criticizing Netanyahu” [Haaretz]. ” U.S. President-elect Donald Trump shared a video of contentious economics professor Jeffrey Sachs describing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as “a deep, darkish son of a bitch” answerable for orchestrating U.S. overseas coverage within the Center East. Trump’s sharing of the video on Reality Social highlights the President-elect’s questionable sources of data on coverage issues and his function in amplifying contentious historic interpretations through his unprecedented platform.” • What an idiotic remark by Haaretz, throwing Jeffrey Sachs into the “questionable sources of data” bucket, code for anti-semitic, although Haaretz go away it to others to unpack the code: “Sachs, an outspoken critic of the Israeli authorities, just lately earned criticism from senior Israeli officers like Diaspora Affairs Minister, Amichai Chikli, following his look on the Tucker Carlson Present. Chikli implied that Sachs was a part of a visitor roster together with ‘fringe Holocaust deniers, conspiracy theorists, and blood libel fanatics who oppose the State of Israel.’” Chikli is an actual piece of labor.

Lawfare

“Justice Division says it plans to launch solely a part of particular counsel’s Trump report for now” [Associated Press]. “The Justice Division stated Wednesday that it intends to launch particular counsel Jack Smith’s findings on Donald Trump’s efforts to undo the outcomes of the 2020 presidential election however will preserve beneath wraps for now the remainder of the report centered on the president-elect’s hoarding of labeled paperwork at his Mar-a-Lago property… The announcement lessens the chance that the report on the labeled paperwork investigation, which of all inquiries in opposition to Trump had as soon as appeared to hold the best authorized menace, would ever be launched on condition that the Trump Justice Division nearly actually won’t make the doc public even after the case in opposition to Nauta and De Oliveira is resolved.” And the norms: “Smith’s group deserted each instances in November after Trump’s presidential victory, citing Justice Division coverage that prohibits the federal prosecutions of sitting presidents. Justice Division laws name for particular counsels appointed by the legal professional normal to submit a confidential report on the conclusion of their investigations. It’s then as much as the legal professional normal to resolve what to make public.”

Democrats en déshabillé

Another reason to hate the Democrats:

Khanna is improper, absurdly improper. That is in no sense an “unforced error” by Democrats (who, as Thomas Frank reminds us in Pay attention, Liberal!, hate the working class). As a substitute, it’s elegant and profitable maneuvering to evade accountability, reasonably like ObamaCare writ small. Sirota feedback:

Realignment and Legitimacy

About Shawn Ryan, the “whistleblower” who launched Livelsberger’s e mail manifesto:

Shot:

Chaser:

Saying “the FBI confirmed…” is rather a lot like saying “A Ukrainian spokesman confirmed….”

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“Nation’s anger at insurance coverage ‘injustice’” [China Daily]. “[Rosemary:] “‘My technology has mentioned about not simply what violence appears like when any individual comes up at you with a gun and shoots you, however extra about financial violence. For those who’re dying by the hands of any individual else based on an organization coverage, that doesn’t make it any much less violent,’ she stated.” • Curiously, I can’t discover the “Rosemary” quote anyplace.

Syndemics

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the deal with given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater experiences); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, thump, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep secure on the market!

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TABLE 1: Day by day Covid Charts

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC December 30 Final week[2] CDC (till subsequent week):

2:00PM Water Cooler 1/8/2025 | bare capitalism

Variants [3] CDC December 21 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC December 28

Hospitalization
★ New York[5] New York State, information January 7: Nationwide [6] CDC Janurary 2, 2005:

Positivity
Nationwide[7] Walgreens January 6: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic January 4:

Vacationers Information
Positivity[9] CDC December 16: Variants[10] CDC December 16

Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC November 20: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC November 20:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new in the present day; all others should not up to date.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) Seeing extra purple and extra orange, however nothing new at main hubs.

[2] (CDC) Final week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) XEC takes over. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has achieved an awesome job normalizing successive waves of an infection.

[4] (ED) A bit of uptick.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Undoubtedly jumped.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Leveling out.

[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.

[8] (Cleveland) Continued upward development since, nicely, Thanksgiving.

[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Leveling out.

[10] (Vacationers: Variants). Positivity is new, however variants haven’t but been launched.

[11] Deaths low, positivity leveling out.

[12] Deaths low, ED leveling out.

Stats Watch

Employment scenario: “United States Preliminary Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “Preliminary jobless claims within the US decreased by 10,000 from the earlier week to 201,000 within the week ending January 4, the bottom in eleven months and contrasting with the anticipated improve to 218,000.”

Car Gross sales: “United States Whole Car Gross sales” [Trading Economics]. “Whole Car Gross sales in america elevated to 16.80 Million in December from 16.65 Million in November of 2024.”

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Manufacturing: “Checks discover no points with Boeing 737-800 jets in S’pore after deadly Jeju Air crash” [Straits Times]. “Checks by the Singapore authorities within the wake of the lethal Jeju Air crash in December have discovered no anomalies or reliability points within the fleet of Boeing 737-800 plane right here, stated Transport Minister Chee Hong Tat on Jan 8. This is identical plane mannequin because the airplane that smashed right into a concrete construction housing navigational gear on the finish of a runway at Muan Worldwide Airport in South Korea, on Dec 29, 2024, killing 179 individuals on board.”

Manufacturing: “Problematic components found in a number of Boeing passenger planes” [KING5]. “On Wednesday, inner Boeing sources advised KING 5 there was a slowdown in Renton’s 737-MAX meeting line due to faulty electrical junction bins. Govt Director of Boeing’s engineering union Ray Goforth confirmed in a press release that there was an issue with the junction bins and it slowed or stopped manufacturing. Nevertheless, he was unaware of how vital the slowdown was. The MAX passenger airplane has miles {of electrical} wiring and whereas it’s unclear which junction field is impacted, Aviation Skilled John Nance stated fixing the issue is crucial. ‘If it’s a generic scenario with quite a few these bins being discovered to be lower than they need to then it must be addressed, there’s no query about it,’ stated Nance. Boeing describes the objects as non-conforming parts and stated regardless of this drawback, manufacturing continues within the Renton manufacturing unit.”

Tech: “The AI hype bubble is the brand new crypto hype bubble” [Cory Doctorow, Pluralistic]. “As [Emily M Bender, a computational linguistics specialist at UW] says, we’ve made ‘machines that may mindlessly generate textual content, however we haven’t realized how you can cease imagining the thoughts behind it.’ One potential tonic in opposition to this fallacy is to observe an Italian MP’s suggestion and substitute ‘AI’ with ‘SALAMI’ (‘Systematic Approaches to Studying Algorithms and Machine Inferences’). It’s rather a lot simpler to maintain a transparent head when somebody asks you, ‘Is that this SALAMI clever? Can this SALAMI write a novel? Does this SALAMI deserve human rights?’ Bender’s most well-known contribution is the ‘stochastic parrot,’ a assemble that ‘simply probabilistically spits out phrases.’ AI bros like Altman love the stochastic parrot, and are hellbent on decreasing human beings to stochastic parrots, which is able to permit them to declare that their chatbots have feature-parity with human beings. On the similar time, Altman and Co are unusually afraid of their creations. It’s attainable that that is only a shuck: ‘I’ve made one thing so highly effective that it may destroy humanity! Fortunately, I’m a smart steward of this factor, so it’s high quality. However boy, it positive is highly effective!’” • That is lengthy, and enjoyable, and value a learn, however I don’t suppose it lives as much as the headline.

Tech: Khan is so fearless:

Little doubt the Democrats will discover a method to bury her.

Tech: Enshittification proceeds apace:


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At present’s Concern & Greed Index: 33 Concern (earlier shut: 35 Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 27 (Concern). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed).

Gallery

I ponder why the entrance web page doesn’t have the look of print:

On occasion I buy a (paper) Monetary Occasions and luxuriate in studying it. The expertise is much, far superior to something on-line, and the format of the pages — one thing we’ve had centuries of expertise doing, in any case — strikes the attention to serendipitous encounters in a means that the net doesn’t.

Zeitgeist Watch

Yikes (1):

Yikes (2):

If the fireplace makes it down off the mountain:

Not a parking zone:

My first thought is that folks took their automobile keys with them, so their vehicles couldn’t be moved, therefore the bulldozer; however perhaps there are not any automobile keys anymore, simply plastic fobs that will soften within the warmth. Readers? (Exhibits you the way a lot I drive, or am pushed.)

The sharing financial system does its half:

Class warfare:

Blast from the previous:

Simply in case anyone thinks Democrats don’t hate the working class.

Class Warfare

“Ski patrollers attain deal to finish strike at Utah’s Park Metropolis Mountain Resort” [Associated Press]. “Ski patrollers on the largest U.S. ski resort have reached a cope with Utah’s Park Metropolis Mountain Resort to finish a strike that put a wrench in operations through the busy vacation season and into the brand new 12 months. A joint assertion launched by the manager board of the ski patrollers’ union stated a vote was scheduled for Wednesday on an settlement ‘that addresses each events’ pursuits and can finish the present strike. Everybody appears ahead to restoring regular resort operations and transferring ahead collectively as one group,’ it stated. The deal would run by means of April 2027. No different particulars about it have been launched. About 200 ski patrollers went on strike on Dec. 27 over wages they stated have been too low for prime dwelling prices.”

Information of the Wired

“The Evaporative Cooling Impact in Social Community” [Bumblebee Labs]. From the Summary: “The Evaporative Cooling Impact describes the phenomenon that top worth contributors go away a group as a result of they can’t acquire one thing from it, which ends up in the lower of the standard of the group. For the reason that individuals more than likely to affix a group are these whose high quality is beneath the common high quality of the group, these newcomers are very prone to hurt the standard of the group. With the growth of group, it is vitally exhausting to take care of the standard of the group.” • Hmm.

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Contact info for vegetation: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a test in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me pictures of vegetation. Greens are high quality! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you need your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it firstly of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From SV:

SV writes: “Even a nearsighted Squirrel finds a pumpkin every now and then.”

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I’ve had a correspondent characterize my views as lifelike cynical. Let me briefly clarify them. I imagine in common packages that present concrete materials advantages, particularly to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime instance, however tuition-free faculty and a Submit Workplace Financial institution additionally fall beneath this heading. So do a Jobs Assure and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can ship on such packages, as a result of the 2 are totally different flavors of neoliberalism (“As a result of markets”). I don’t a lot care in regards to the “ism” that delivers the advantages, though whichever one does need to put frequent humanity first, versus markets. Could possibly be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t a lot care, so long as the advantages are delivered.

To me, the important thing situation — and because of this Medicare for All is at all times first with me — is the tens of hundreds of extra “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton research, and different latest research. That big physique depend makes Medicare for All, on the very least, an ethical and strategic crucial. And that stage of struggling and natural injury makes the issues of id politics — even the worthy battle to assist the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — brilliant shiny objects by comparability. Therefore my frustration with the information circulation — at present for my part the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the opposite by out-of-power liberals and their allies within the State and within the press — a information circulation that continuously forces me to give attention to issues that I regard as of secondary significance to the surplus deaths. What sort of political financial system is it that halts and even reverses the will increase in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I’m additionally very hopeful that the persevering with destruction of each get together institutions will open the house for voices supporting packages just like these I’ve listed; let’s name such voices “the left.” Volatility creates alternative, particularly if the Democrat institution, which places markets first and opposes all such packages, isn’t allowed to get again into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I really like the tactical stage, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been running a blog about it every day for fourteen years, however all the pieces I write has this angle behind it.











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