By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Hen Track of the Day
Northern Mockingbird, 34 Peregrine Crossing, Chatham, Georgia, United States.
In Case You May Miss…
Politics
“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in reality a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
Trump Transition
“Freewheeling Transparency: Trump Holds First Submit-Election Information Convention” [RealClearPolitics]. “Donald Trump couldn’t assist himself. ‘We’ll take a number of questions,’ the president-elect advised reporters assembled at Mar-a-Lago for an announcement a few $100 billion funding from the Japanese expertise firm SoftBank. He answered almost two dozen questions in an hour. What was billed as a press assertion turned a sweeping press convention, his first since successful the election, signaling the return of Trump’s model of free-wheeling transparency. His workers had summoned reporters to speak up the brand new funding, however Trump fortunately fielded questions on every little thing from the border wall (the sale of unused materials was ‘virtually a prison act’) to the alleged hyperlink between autism and vaccines (‘there’s something incorrect and we’re going to discover out about it’). 5 weeks earlier than Inauguration Day, all three of the most important cable networks took Trump reside. And the president-elect made information off-the-cuff. Trump stated of the drones sighted on the East Coast, ‘The federal government is aware of what is occurring,’ contradicting claims from the Biden administration and condemning them for not commenting on their origin. He added that drones had been noticed over his Bedminster property in New Jersey, and ‘I made a decision to cancel my journey.’” • Properly. The distinction between the 2016 and 2024 transitions couldn’t be higher.
* * * “Elizabeth Warren asks Trump to set conflict-of-interest guidelines for Musk” [WaPo]. “The letter despatched by e-mail from the Democrat’s Senate workplace to Trump’s transition group notes that common members of the Trump Vance 2025 Transition Group function underneath an ethics coverage that requires them to ‘keep away from each precise and obvious conflicts of curiosity.’ These guidelines, which have been revealed by the Common Companies Administration, embrace prohibition from transition group members working ‘on specific issues involving particular events that have an effect on’ their pursuits. Musk, who’s price $474 billion in accordance with the Bloomberg Billionaire Index, spent greater than $250 million to assist elect Trump president and has since embraced the label ‘first buddy’ to explain his function. He has been a frequent presence at Trump’s facet, advising on authorities formation and taking a lead function in a brand new effort to chop federal spending. It’s not clear what ethics guidelines, if any, Musk, has agreed to observe in his function as a Trump adviser. ‘Placing Mr. Musk ready to affect billions of {dollars} of presidency contracts and regulatory enforcement and not using a stringent battle of curiosity settlement in place is an invite for corruption on a scale not seen in our lifetimes,’ Warren wrote. ‘As your Transition Group Ethics Plan makes clear, the function of presidency is to not line the pockets of the wealthiest People; a powerful, enforceable ethics plan for the world’s richest man is a obligatory first step for delivering on that promise.’” • Properly, I’m glad she’s in there punching. And “First Buddy”? Expensive Lord. However certainly a billionaire in authorities is confliced by definition?
“Trump’s for-profit presidency” [VOX]. “”Victory” cologne and fragrance. ‘Crypto President’ watches. Restricted-edition ‘American Eagle’ guitars. T-branded golf footwear and ‘Combat Combat Combat’ high-top sneakers. These are only a pattern of the various merchandise licensed to bear President-elect Donald Trump’s model, together with some that he has promoted on his social media web site Reality Social simply weeks earlier than his inauguration. If he continues to hawk his merchandise after returning to the White Home, that would elevate moral considerations.” • “Don, I hold tellin ya. Arrange a Basis!”
* * * “Trump passes over RFK Jr.’s daughter-in-law for CIA’s No. 2 job” [WaPo]. “President-elect Donald Trump has advised shut aides he’s not contemplating Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s daughter-in-law to function deputy director on the CIA, after a marketing campaign by Republican lawmakers who [Yeah, who wants that?], in accordance with individuals aware of the matter…. Cotton, a staunch supporter of subversive espionage operations overseas who prior to now has advocated the overthrow of Iran’s authorities, is without doubt one of the most hawkish voices on overseas coverage in Congress and is anticipated to chair the Senate Intelligence Committee subsequent 12 months.” • Hmm….
On Kennedy at HHS:
I want Trump + RFK had caught to MAHA (“Make America Wholesome Once more”), which was an important and even encouraging thought. This seems to be like throwing pink meat the bottom.
* * * “Choose rejects Trump’s bid to toss hush cash conviction due to Supreme Courtroom immunity ruling” [Associated Press]. The nugatory Bragg case lives on: “A decide Monday refused to throw out President-elect Donald Trump’s hush cash conviction due to the U.S. Supreme Courtroom’s current ruling on presidential immunity. However the total way forward for the historic case stays unclear. Manhattan Choose Juan M. Merchan’s resolution blocks one potential off-ramp from the case forward of the previous and future president’s return to workplace subsequent month. His attorneys have raised different arguments for dismissal, nevertheless. It’s unclear when — or whether or not — a sentencing date is likely to be set. Prosecutors have stated there needs to be some lodging for his upcoming presidency, however they insist the conviction ought to stand.” • You’ve gotta give credit score to the New York Bar — Bragg, Merchan, and naturally the agency of Paul, Weiss — for being deeply dedicated to the bit.
2024 Submit Mortem
“The Electoral Faculty votes to substantiate outcomes for the 2024 presidential election immediately. Right here’s what to know” [CBS]. “At state capitols throughout the U.S. Tuesday, the presidential electors shall be gathering to solid their electoral votes, formalizing President-elect Donald Trump’s victory over Vice President Kamala Harris within the 2024 election.
“13 2020 pretend electors will solid actual Electoral Faculty votes for Trump on Tuesday” [CNN]. “13 Republicans who participated within the 2020 pretend electors plot, together with some who’re dealing with prison expenses, will solid actual Electoral Faculty votes Tuesday for President-elect Donald Trump, as electors within the states finalize his victory. These Republican activists hail from Pennsylvania, Michigan and Nevada – important battleground states that Trump carried this 12 months, after dropping all of them in 2020. 4 years in the past, they signed pretend certificates falsely claiming Trump received. They had been picked once more by Republicans to be electors this 12 months, and can signal the genuine certificates.” • I don’t settle for the “pretend” framing. A number of the “contingent” electors signed in good religion, persauded by the way more culpable Republican attorneys.
Democrats en déshabillé
“AOC loses key vote in Home Oversight race to Gerry Connolly” [Axios]. “Home Democrats’ Steering and Coverage Committee voted to suggest Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.) as rating member of the Home Oversight Committee, a number of sources aware of the vote advised Axios. It’s an enormous blow to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s (D-N.Y.) hopes of main the high-profile panel, although the complete Democratic caucus nonetheless has to vote to approve steering’s decide. It’s uncommon for the caucus to buck the suggestion of steering – which is intently aligned with Democratic management – but it surely has occurred earlier than. Connolly defeated Ocasio-Cortez 34 to 27 on Monday, in accordance with a number of lawmakers current. Ocasio-Cortez stated after the vote that she’s going to proceed to contest the function when it goes to a vote of the complete caucus. The battle between Ocasio-Cortez, 35, and Connolly, 74, got here as a number of committee rating members have fallen to challenges from comparatively youthful colleagues.” • The total caucus does nonetheless have to vote, however as of now, it seems to be like all that sucking up didn’t purchase AOC a factor. Which is a disgrace, since she’s an important pure expertise. Let that be a lesson to you all! (I don’t care about her age: The Democrat management must be dismantled with a jackhammer, and I don’t a lot care the way it’s achieved. Simply think about, Pelosi orchestrating the entire thing from a hospital mattress in Paris. Commentary:
* * * “Senate Democrats push plan to abolish Electoral Faculty” [The Hill]. • This is their focus? Actually? Don’t ever change, Democrats!
Realignment and Legitimacy
“People Go Judgment on Their Courts” [Gallup]. • Useful chart:
Syndemics
“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the deal with given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reviews); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep secure on the market!
Airborne Transmission
Air flow priorities for the following airborne syndemic:
Colleges, for instance, are v efficient propagators of outbreaks:
– Giant numbers of contacts
– Indoor air high quality usually poor
– Lengthy period of publicity
– Common attendance
– Youngsters do not reside alone: they reside in households with different age teams -> group unfold.2/
— Amanda Kvalsvig (@AmandaKvalsvig) December 13, 2024
TABLE 1: Day by day Covid Charts
Lambert right here: Walgreen’s positivity hasn’t gone up, but it surely hasn’t gone down, both.
| Wastewater | |
| This week[1] CDC December 9 | Final week[2] CDC (till subsequent week): |
|
|
|
| Variants [3] CDC December 7 | Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC December 7 |
|
|
|
| Hospitalization | |
| ★New York[5] New York State, information December 16: | Nationwide [6] CDC December 12: |
|
|
|
| Positivity | |
| ★ Nationwide[7] Walgreens December 16: | Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic December 7: |
|
|
|
| Vacationers Knowledge | |
| Positivity[9] CDC November 25: | Variants[10] CDC November 25: |
|
|
|
| Deaths | |
| Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC November 20: | Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC November 20: |
|
|
|
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new immediately; all others should not up to date.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) Seeing just a little extra pink, however nothing new main worldwide hubs. Curiously, Calculated Danger is watching wastewater too.
[2] (CDC) Final week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) XEC takes over. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has achieved an important job normalizing successive waves of an infection.
[4] (ED) Somewhat uptick.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Leveled out.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Leveling out.
[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.
[8] (Cleveland) Up!
[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Leveling out.
[10] (Vacationers: Variants). Positivity is new, however variants haven’t but been launched.
[11] Deaths low, positivity leveling out.
[12] Deaths low, ED leveling out.
Stats Watch
Retail Gross sales: “United States Retail Gross sales YoY” [Trading Economics]. “Retail Gross sales in america elevated 3.8% year-on-year in November 2024, the largest annual rise since December final 12 months, and following an upwardly revised 2.9% achieve in October.”
Manufacturing: “United States Industrial Manufacturing MoM” [Industrial Production]. “Industrial manufacturing in america fell by 0.1% from the earlier month in November of 2024 to increase the 0.4% contraction in October, and contrasting with market expectations of a 0.2% rise. The outcome was according to different surveys that pointed to softness in US manufacturing, unveiling the sector’s battle forward of potential tariffs by President-elect Trump subsequent 12 months.”
Capability: “United States Capability Utilization” [Trading Economics]. “Capability utilization within the US fell to 76.8% in November 2024, the bottom studying since April 2021, from a downwardly revised 77% in October and under forecasts of 77.3%. The speed is now 2.9 proportion factors under its long-run common.”
Manufacturing: “One Boeing manufacturing facility has been secure from layoffs and is about to begin hiring” [Quartz]. “Though Boeing (BA) has been sluggish to restart manufacturing of the planes constructed by its unionized workforce and has been laying a lot of them off amid a 12 months of struggles, the corporate introduced it will be making a giant funding in a non-unionized plant. The planemaker stated final week that it will be sinking $1 billion within the South Carolina plant the place it builds 787 Dreamliners and creating 500 jobs there.”
In the present day’s Worry & Greed Index: 52 Impartial (earlier shut: 56 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 47 (Impartial). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Dec 17 at 1:39:53 PM ET.
Thriller Drones
“Drone detectors in New Jersey have discovered ‘little or no proof’ of wrongdoing, governor says” [Associated Press]. “Murphy advised reporters in Trenton that there have been 12 sightings of suspected drones within the state on Saturday and one on Sunday. He declined to enter element in regards to the detection tools, however stated it was highly effective sufficient to disable the drones, though he added that’s not authorized on U.S. soil… Federal officers, together with Homeland Safety Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, have repeatedly stated there aren’t any indicators that any drone operators have proven unhealthy intent, neither is there proof of overseas involvement.” • So, that’s alright then.
“Drones newest: FBI addresses thriller lights over East Coast as public warned to not shoot them down” [Independent]. “‘Having intently examined the technical information and ideas from involved residents, we assess that the sightings thus far embrace a mix of lawful industrial drones, hobbyist drones, and regulation enforcement drones, in addition to manned fixed-wing plane, helicopters, and stars mistakenly reported as drones,’ the federal businesses stated.” However not planets? Extra: ‘ and don’t assess the exercise thus far to current a nationwide safety or public security danger over the civilian airspace in New Jersey or different states within the northeast.’ The FBI workplace in Newark has in the meantime moved to warning the general public towards attempting to shoot down the unmanned gadgets, warning they might injure themselves.”
“Don’t panic – these thriller drones over New Jersey may not be so mysterious in any case” [Techradar]. A brand new principle: “There was a bigger drone take a look at carried out both by the native or federal authorities or an organization that needed to see how properly a supply fleet operated at evening. Since 2021, the FAA has approved some drone evening flights, although the drones nonetheless have to stay at elevations underneath 400 ft. Which will account for why these drones have been so seen. They’re bigger and can’t break the foundations by flying in air house reserved for airplanes.” These can be the SUV-sized drones (see NC right here). And: “After that preliminary flight (and perhaps a number of subsequent ones), undiscerning eyes began to assume that any mild within the sky that they might not establish was additionally a drone. Drones of the dimensions most individuals declare they’re seeing, by the way in which, should not simple to fly, and evening flights would require much more experience.”
“Army knowledgeable says ‘authorities is aware of the supply’ of drones amid thriller sightings” [Hindustan Times]. Further theorizing: “[Col. William] Dunn, an assault helicopter pilot who spent 33 years within the Marine Corps, stated that he believes the ‘drones originate from contained in the US’ as a result of ‘it’s very troublesome to fly an airplane the dimensions of a car into america with out being detected.’ He went on to say that ‘a big drone has obtained to be refueled,’ suggesting that the drones that had been lately noticed in New Jersey should have been refuelled someplace throughout the nation.” • These are, once more, the SUV-sized drones (and never the brilliant lights within the sky, that are planes, or planets).
“Thriller as radioactive cargo goes lacking in New Jersey amid drone invasion” [Daily Mail]. “A bit of medical tools used for most cancers scans was shipped from the Nazha Most cancers Heart in Newfield on December 2 for disposal, however the ‘delivery container arrived at its vacation spot broken and empty.’ The system, often known as a ‘pin supply,’ contained a small quantity of Germanium-68 (Ge-68) that’s used to calibrate a medical scanner’s accuracy. If dealt with with out correct gear, it may possibly trigger radiation poisoning.” • When you purchase the seek for radioactivity principle, the timeline is incorrect: The massive (HPGe), SUV-sized drones first appeared in November 18. In any case, the dosage from the medical tools is small, disproportionate to the hassle.
Annals of Faith
“Survivors search a reckoning as FBI investigates youngster intercourse abuse in little-known Christian sect” [Associated Press]. I’m submitting this right here due to the headline, however in reality it’s the institutional construction of the sect that pursuits me: ” Almost each element in regards to the non secular group Lisa Webb’s household belonged to was hidden from the skin world. Its followers met in properties reasonably than church buildings. Its management construction was arduous to discern, its funds opaque. [The group known as the ‘Two by Twos’] didn’t even have an official identify…. [T]he sect has largely prevented authorized repercussions, protected by its decentralized construction, hidden funds and state legal guidelines that restrict the timeline for prison expenses…. The sect, additionally identified to its members as ‘The Manner’ or ‘The Reality,’ was based in Eire in 1897 by William Irvine, who railed towards the existence of church buildings. The one approach to unfold Christianity, he argued, was to do as Jesus instructed within the Ebook of Matthew: to ship apostles out to reside amongst these they sought to transform… [T]he sect’s aversion to property leaves it with out obvious belongings that is likely to be used to pay settlements, authorized consultants say…. The sect grew as volunteer preachers — often known as staff — went “two by two” to reside within the household properties of followers for days or perhaps weeks at a time. Sect historians say there have been up to some million members only a few many years in the past, however present estimates put the determine at 75,000 to 85,000 worldwide…. Employees are alleged to shun worldly possessions, counting on followers for meals, shelter and transportation.”
“New Disaster Hotline for CEOs?” [Ken Klipperstein]. Differrent from the political events? “New York state is contemplating making a particular hotline solely for CEOs to report perceived threats, CNN reported this morning. Good little reminder of simply how responsive authorities will be with regards to company executives…. The dearth of any concrete risk hasn’t stopped officers from making ready for one. Final Thursday, New York Governor Kathy Hochul advised MSNBC’s Morning Joe about her plans to carry a “proactive” assembly on Tuesday with 175 company representatives in addition to Homeland Safety and counterterrorism officers to debate find out how to share intelligence with company safety, in accordance with Kathy Wylde, CEO of the Partnership for New York Metropolis…. ‘Demonization of company executives isn’t new,’ Wylde advised Politico final week. ‘It was a part of the rhetoric within the monetary disaster of 2008-09.’” • Bear in mind within the S&L disaster, when company executives really went to jail? That was earlier than Obama, after all.
“MIT examine explains why legal guidelines are written in an incomprehensible fashion” [MIT News]. “Authorized paperwork often have lengthy definitions inserted in the course of sentences — a function often known as ‘center-embedding.’ Linguists have beforehand discovered that this type of construction could make textual content way more obscure. ‘Legalese by some means has developed this tendency to place constructions inside different constructions, in a method which isn’t typical of human languages,’ [Edward Gibson, an MIT professor of brain and cognitive sciences] says. Simply as magic spells are written with a particular fashion that units them aside from on a regular basis language, the convoluted fashion of authorized language seems to sign a particular form of authority, the researchers say. ‘In English tradition, if you wish to write one thing that’s a magic spell, individuals know that the way in which to try this is you place lots of old style rhymes in there. We expect perhaps center-embedding is signaling legalese in the identical method,’ Gibson says.”
“90-hour-a-week Wall Road bankers snorting traces of Adderall at their desks” [The Telegraph]. • Our capital allocation goes nice.
“Absinthe: From Inexperienced Fairy to Ethical Panic” [History Today]. “Underlying absinthe’s dramatic fall from grace was a change in shoppers. As soon as the costly drink of the French bourgeoisie and artists, absinthe turned extra reasonably priced within the second half of the nineteenth century, whereupon staff, girls and people within the French colonies, from North Africa to Indochina, started ingesting it. Consequently, absinthe got here to be blamed for working-class criminality on the whole and, extra particularly, for the acts of the revolutionary Communards after the siege of Paris in 1871. The creator Maxime du Camp, for instance, described these Communards in his 1881 e-book Convulsions of Paris, as ‘knights of debauchery and apostles of absinthe’.”
“U2’s Larry Mullen Jr: my dyscalculia makes ‘counting like climbing Everest’” [The Times]. “Larry Mullen Jr, the U2 drummer, has revealed that he can’t rely or add numbers as a result of he suffers from dyscalculia — a studying incapacity that impacts numeracy…. ‘When individuals watch me play typically, they are saying, ‘you look pained’. I’m pained as a result of I’m attempting to rely the bars,’ Mullen stated. ‘I needed to discover methods of doing this — and counting bars is like climbing Everest.’… About 6 per cent of the UK’s inhabitants suffers from dyscalculia, in accordance with the Dyscalculia Community.” • 6%? Actually?
Contact data for vegetation: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a verify if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me pictures of vegetation. Greens are positive! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! In order for you your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it at the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From tennesseewaltzer:
Tennesseewaltzer writes: “Fall Pumpkins–at all times an indication of the change of season.”
Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the annual NC fundraiser. Materials right here is Lambert’s, and doesn’t specific the views of the Bare Capitalism web site. When you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see wherever else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible kind. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 3 or 4 days I get nervous. Extra tangibly, a relentless trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:
Right here is the display that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:
When you hate PayPal, you possibly can e-mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I provides you with instructions on find out how to ship a verify. Thanks!
