Economics

2:00PM Water Cooler 12/18/2024 | bare capitalism

December 18, 2024
knowledge


By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Fowl Music of the Day

Northern Mockingbird, Southards Pond Park, Suffolk, New York, United States. “Three track bouts. Singing from the roof of a home adjoining to the park. Mimicry consists of Belted Kingfisher, Northern Flicker, and Carolina Wren.” “Bouts!”

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In Case You Would possibly Miss…

  1. Warren v. Musk.
  2. Democrat gerontocrats
  3. Mangione charged with terrorism.
  4. Fowl flu, the primary extreme case.

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Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in truth a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

* * *

Trump Transition

Warren asks for conflict-of-interest guidelines masking Musk” [The Hill]. • She’s proper on the deserves, after all. How is an oligarch not conflicted, by definition, since they, by their actions or non-actions, are able to affecting your complete economic system? Elon responds:

A brutally apparent advert hom, after all. Tactically, nonetheless, it’s extremely unlucky that the Democrat standard-bearer on Elon’s oligarch-style conflicts is the type of DEI-beneficiary assured to get each conservative knee jerking:

And:

We went over all this again in 2016, when the unimpeachably high-minded quondam Republican Warren was stabbing Sanders within the again — not that I’m bitter — however suffice to say that one is just a Cherokee — the tribe to which Warren claimed to belong — if the tribe admits you, and Warren was by no means admitted. Warren provides each look of getting climbed to her eminence at Harvard Regulation College on their (non-white) backs, precisely what inflames, say, half the nation and distracts from the reputable challenge Warren raises. Too unhealthy the Democrats can’t do higher of their spokespersons, however right here we’re.

Democrats en déshabillé

“Pelosi Received. The Democratic Get together Misplaced” [The New Republic]. “Recent off hip substitute surgical procedure, Nancy Pelosi, 84, secured one other victory. Home Democrats on Tuesday afternoon determined that 74 yr previous Gerry Connolly—who introduced his throat most cancers analysis in November—will function rating member on the Home Oversight Committee, besting 35 year-old Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in a closed-door caucus vote. ‘ stated Virginia Democrat Don Beyer, a Connolly ally.” Extra: “In different democracies, the management of events which have endured humiliating defeats just like the one Democrats noticed in November—and even simply common defeats—resign. That kicks off a course of by which members decide a brand new, ideally extra profitable route, represented by totally different individuals. However the Democratic Get together isn’t actually a ‘social gathering’ of the kind that exists in different democracies, with memberships and official constituencies, like unions, who’ve some say over the way it’s ruled. Members principally make choices based mostly on their very own pursuits quite than to drive some shared, democratically-decided agenda ahead [“the beautiful tent that is the Democratic Party“]. That’s a part of what’s so miserable concerning the Oversight Committee ordeal for the couple dozen journalists and political junkies who take note of that type of factor. Pelosi and the previous guard’s continued opposition to youthful expertise appears breathtakingly counter-productive within the face of the Democratic social gathering’s quite a few challenges proper now.” And: ” If the Democrats have a future, its inspiration will come from exterior the bounds of its personal fiefdoms and sclerotic inside processes. It can come, for instance, from unions that domesticate leaders who can genuinely converse to working class voters. It can come social actions that construct momentum for populist concepts that haven’t been ballot examined into bland, business-friendly mush. On the very least, these issues can outlive Pelosi and the previous guard.” • ‘Tis a consummation devoutly to be wished. However I don’t agree that “members principally make choices based mostly on their very own pursuits.” If that have been true, there could be no want for social gathering whips.

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Democrats’ 5 Methods for Coping With Trump 2.0″ [Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine]. “Some Democrats are so completely impressed by the present energy of the MAGA motion they’re selecting to give up to it in important respects. The prime instance is Senator John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, the onetime fiery populist politician who’s now changing into conspicuous in his want to confess his social gathering’s weaknesses and snuggle as much as the brand new regime…. It’s in all probability germane to Fetterman’s conduct that he might be up for reelection in 2028, a presidential-election yr in a state Trump carried on November 5.” And: “Different Democrats are being rather more selectively pleasant to Trump, trying to find ‘frequent floor’ on points the place they consider he might be cross-pressured by his rich backers and extra standard Republicans. Like Fetterman, these Democrats — together with Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren — have a tendency to return from the progressive wing of the social gathering and have longed chafed on the centrist financial insurance policies superior by Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and, to some extent, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. They’ve talked about strategically encouraging Trump’s ‘populist’ impulses on such points as credit-card curiosity and big-tech regulation, partly as a matter of forcing the brand new president and his congressional allies to place up or shut up. So the concept is to push off a discredited Democratic Institution, at the least on financial points, and both accomplish issues for working-class voters in alliance with Trump or show the hollowness of his ‘populism.’… On the different finish of the spectrum, some centrist Democrats are pushing off what they understand as a discredited progressive ascendancy within the social gathering, particularly on culture-war points and immigration…. From a strategic standpoint, these militant centrists seem to examine a 2028 presidential marketing campaign that can take again the voters Biden gained in 2020 and that Harris misplaced this yr.” However lastly: “Historic precedents point out very excessive odds that Democrats can flip the Home in 2026, bringing to a comparatively fast finish to any Republican legislative steamroller on Trump’s behalf and signaling good vibes for 2028.” • So, stand pat.

“What Occurred to the Democratic Get together?” (overview) [The New Repunblic]. This caught my eye, on rival pollsters Stanley Greenberg and Douglas Schoen: “For [historian Timothy Shenk in Left Adrift, these two men—bitter rivals for clout and clients in the retooling Democratic Party of the Clinton era—understood better than many traditional New Dealers in the party’s leadership caste that a massive, if slow-moving, political realignment was under way: the party’s abandonment of its traditional working-class base and its embrace of a professional, highly educated elite…. Greenberg, who came of political age during Eugene McCarthy’s incendiary anti-war presidential campaign in 1968, accepted this political shift as it gained traction in the Reagan era. But he did so from a defensive posture, seeking to persuade candidates and clients to echo vintage Democratic populist appeals in a last-ditch bid to arrest the dealignment of working-class voters from the party. Meanwhile, Schoen, a scion of Manhattan privilege, cheerfully welcomed the shift as the new consensus delimiting future Democratic agendas, policy goals, and political campaigns…. Schoen, for his part, had no misgivings about the party giving up on the working class, white or not. An early and enthusiastic adopter of Margaret Thatcher’s famous pronouncement on the neoliberal dispensation—”There is no alternative”—Schoen and his consulting partner, Mark Penn (who would later serve as chairman of Hillary Clinton’s disastrous 2008 presidential campaign), built up an influential and wildly profitable Beltway franchise for political and corporate clients that also advanced their own political preferences.” • There’s actually some analysis in the piece that treats “the working class” as dynamic….

“The mechanized hum of another world” [Closed Form]. “Manner again in the beginning of the Industrial Revolution that began humanity down this disastrous path, a man by the title of Friedrich Engels (who could be very acquainted to anybody that has been studying this article) coined a neat little time period to explain a phenomenon specific to the rising industrial-technical group of life. The time period, which may also be extraordinarily acquainted to readers of this article or Nate’s, is social homicide. Through an extended evaluation of the Marxian idea of ‘mute compulsion’ elaborated just lately in a ebook by Søren Mau (and lined by yours really on this publish), we will present straightforwardly that social homicide points from what Ted Kaczynski would possibly name the technological group of society, and which I’d name the ‘guidelines of the sport’ of capitalism itself. By means of engaged on this article, I’ve began to theorize social homicide as a subcategory of structural violence, one that may function a theoretical foundation for a lot of quite adrift ideas in public well being comparable to so-called ‘well being disparities.’ Social homicide helps us describe actually-existing inhabitants well being and floor it conceptually in a capitalist political economic system, be it world or nationwide (or native). One in all these points of inhabitants well being that social homicide helps us make sense of is medical health insurance – in truth, I’m planning a complete publish about medical health insurance, qualitatively, as a social determinant of well being, so keep tuned for that.” • Vital! (Two inquiries to interrogate “social homicide” with: Who and what are literally murdered? And the way does this differ from the operation of Rule #2, the default setting?)

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Luigi Mangione Charged With Terrorism in Killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO” [New York Magazine]. “Luigi Mangione was charged with first-degree homicide and second-degree homicide as an act of terrorism, amongst different counts, in an indictment introduced by Manhattan district lawyer Alvin Bragg on Tuesday.” Sure, that Alvin Bragg, who little question has the Governor’s mansion in his sights.

“The Wildest Prices in Accused UHC Shooter’s Indictment” [The New Republic]. “It’s unclear how precisely Mangione’s alleged crime was meant to ‘affect the coverage of a unit of presidency,’ which firms comparable to UnitedHealthcare aren’t, or ‘intimidate’ the civilian inhabitants. Moderately, Mangione’s alleged act appeared to have been deliberate to focus on a particular class of people who revenue exorbitantly off the struggling of the civilian inhabitants. ‘The ruling class is treating killing certainly one of their very own, with the motive being associated to the evils of our well being care system, as a basically totally different act than should you or I have been to be murdered,’ wrote journalist J.P. Hill on X Tuesday.”

[much more to come on this topic shortly; please check back.]

Syndemics

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the handle given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep protected on the market!

Transmission: H5N1

<“Well being officers say Louisiana affected person is first extreme chook flu case in US” [Associated Press]. “An individual in Louisiana has the primary extreme sickness brought on by chook flu within the U.S., well being officers stated Wednesday. The affected person had been involved with sick and lifeless birds in yard flocks, the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention stated. Company officers didn’t instantly element the individual’s signs…. The CDC confirmed the Louisiana an infection on Friday, however didn’t announce it till Wednesday. It’s additionally the primary U.S. human case linked to publicity to a yard flock, the company stated…. Did the Louisiana affected person have pre-existing circumstances that made her or him extra prone to sickness? Is the individual on a ventilator? The CDC deferred these and different questions concerning the affected person to state well being officers, who didn’t instantly reply.” • Due to course.

“CDC Confirms First Extreme Case of H5N1 Fowl Flu in the USA” (press launch) [CDC]. “This case underscores that, along with affected industrial poultry and dairy operations, wild birds and yard flocks additionally could be a supply of publicity….. Which means yard flock house owners, hunters and different chook fans also needs to take precautions. The easiest way to forestall H5 chook flu is to keep away from publicity each time attainable. Contaminated birds shed avian influenza A viruses of their saliva, mucous, and feces. Different contaminated animals could shed avian influenza A viruses in respiratory secretions and different bodily fluids (e.g., in unpasteurized cow milk or ‘uncooked milk’).” • Keep away from contact, use PPE, don’t contact contaminated surfaces or supplies. NOTE I’m not recalling a case of chook flu transmitted by uncooked milk, repellent and damaging although I discover the uncooked milk grift.

Testing and Monitoring: Wastewater

Some modelers are calling a winter Covid “surge” proper now. Some remarks. First, I don’t use graphs like these beneath as a result of I don’t regard them as actionable; I exploit the CDC maps as a result of they’re higher in a position to reply questions like “Ought to I am going to see Grandma in Wichita this Christmas?” or “Ought to I take that ski trip in Colorado in January?” Additional, my Covid protocols are fixed; I wouldn’t differ them by the fluctuations within the graph in any case. Additional, I object to calling a surge earlier than it’s seen:

2:00PM Water Cooler 12/18/2024 | bare capitalism

You’ll discover that the “surge” on this chart is all projection. Effectively, I’ve demonstrated prior to now that CDC projections aren’t essentially dependable; and I don’t view different fashions as any higher; see Closed Kind. So I’d advocate reserving the time period “surge” for an really oberved occasion of some scale, and never a projection to this point scaled to a ripple based mostly on previous occasions, as proven on this brutally and shamefully truncated CDC chart:

That Scranton Joe; he can surge with the perfect of ’em!

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TABLE 1: Each day Covid Charts

Lambert right here: Walgreen’s positivity hasn’t gone up, but it surely hasn’t gone down, both.

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC December 9 Final week[2] CDC (till subsequent week):

Variants [3] CDC December 7 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC December 7

Hospitalization
★New York[5] New York State, information December 16: Nationwide [6] CDC December 12:

Positivity
Nationwide[7] Walgreens December 16: ★ Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic December 14:

Vacationers Knowledge
Positivity[9] CDC November 25: Variants[10] CDC November 25:

Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC November 20: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC November 20:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new at the moment; all others aren’t up to date.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) Seeing just a little extra pink, however nothing new at main worldwide hubs. Curiously, Calculated Danger is watching wastewater too.

[2] (CDC) Final week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) XEC takes over. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has finished an ideal job normalizing successive waves of an infection.

[4] (ED) A bit uptick.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Leveled out.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Leveling out.

[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.

[8] (Cleveland) Continued upward development since, effectively, Thanksgiving.

[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Leveling out.

[10] (Vacationers: Variants). Positivity is new, however variants haven’t but been launched.

[11] Deaths low, positivity leveling out.

[12] Deaths low, ED leveling out.

Stats Watch

There are not any official statistics of curiosity at the moment.

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At the moment’s Worry & Greed Index: 52 Impartial (earlier shut: 56 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 47 (Impartial). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Dec 17 at 1:39:53 PM ET.

Thriller Drones

“The Nice Drone Panic of 2024” [New York Magazine]. “Public hysterias have all the time surfaced every now and then, within the U.S. and in every single place else that people occur to be. And the drones have been enjoyable, at first. On Reddit, r/UFOs is buzzing with exercise as customers concoct authorities conspiracies and dream of alien incursions from outer area. However there’s all the time an underbelly to contagions of this kind. Think about the nice drone panic of 2024 alongside different developments, and it seems to be like an indication of deeper social dysfunction. America is fearful, even paranoid; it has simply reelected Trump, a vengeful determine who admires dictators and strongmen and seeks retribution in opposition to liberals and the broader world order they symbolize. Conspiratorial considering will not be a brand new phenomenon within the U.S., however it’s a hallmark of the MAGA motion, and Trump’s rise empowers a category of grifters who prey on ignorance and worry.” • NJ is, after all, a Blue state.

Information of the Wired

“Why do individuals consider true issues?” [Conspicuous Cognition]. “There by no means was a “reality” period. The dominant world religions are huge repositories of faux information and rumours; conspiracy theories are as previous as humanity; and false, cartoonish, and biased narratives and ideologies are the norm all through human historical past. Nonetheless, it’s also as a result of I believe finding fashionable epistemic issues in ‘misinformation’ and associated buzzwords is explanatorily shallow. When you admire that the reality will not be the default—that it’s an distinctive, fragile, unbelievable achievement—it ought to shift the way you strategy social epistemology. First, it ought to encourage a acutely aware rejection of naive realism. The reality will not be self-evident…. Second, it ought to make us perceive that lies, conspiracy theories, misinformation, bias, pseudo-science, superstition and so forth aren’t alien perversions of the general public sphere. They’re the epistemic state of nature that society will revert to within the absence of fragile—and extremely contingent—cultural and institutional achievements. Given this, the true epistemic problem for the twenty-first century is to not fight misinformation, besides insofar as doing this helps us obtain a deeper, extra elementary objective: sustaining and enhancing our greatest epistemic norms and establishments, and profitable belief in, and conformity to, them.” • So, how are we doing on that?

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Contact data for vegetation: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a examine if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photos of vegetation. Greens are effective! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you would like your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it at the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From SV:

SV writes: “Bubbler on African Basil.” Unsure I perceive “bubbler.” That is 2:00pm, not 4:20.

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I’ve had a correspondent characterize my views as sensible cynical. Let me briefly clarify them. I consider in common packages that present concrete materials advantages, particularly to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime instance, however tuition-free school and a Submit Workplace Financial institution additionally fall beneath this heading. So do a Jobs Assure and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can ship on such packages, as a result of the 2 are totally different flavors of neoliberalism (“As a result of markets”). I don’t a lot care concerning the “ism” that delivers the advantages, though whichever one does must put frequent humanity first, versus markets. May very well be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t a lot care, so long as the advantages are delivered.

To me, the important thing challenge — and because of this Medicare for All is all the time first with me — is the tens of 1000’s of extra “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton examine, and different current research. That big physique depend makes Medicare for All, on the very least, an ethical and strategic crucial. And that degree of struggling and natural harm makes the considerations of id politics — even the worthy struggle to assist the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — vibrant shiny objects by comparability. Therefore my frustration with the information movement — at the moment in my opinion the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the opposite by out-of-power liberals and their allies within the State and within the press — a information movement that consistently forces me to deal with issues that I regard as of secondary significance to the surplus deaths. What sort of political economic system is it that halts and even reverses the will increase in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I’m additionally very hopeful that the persevering with destruction of each social gathering institutions will open the area for voices supporting packages just like these I’ve listed; let’s name such voices “the left.” Volatility creates alternative, particularly if the Democrat institution, which places markets first and opposes all such packages, isn’t allowed to get again into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I really like the tactical degree, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been running a blog about it day by day for fourteen years, however every part I write has this attitude behind it.











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