Australia labour market – sluggish as progress slows – William Mitchell – Trendy Financial Idea


The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) launched the newest labour power information right this moment (April 17, 2025) – Labour Pressure, Australia – for March 2025. It revealed that the unemployment price rose 0.1 level (on rounding) to 4.1 per cent, employment rose by 32,200 (0.2 per cent), the underemployment price was unchanged at 5.9 per cent, and the participation price rose 0.1 level (on rounding). Month-to-month hours labored fell by 6 million (-0.3 per cent). The broad labour underutilisation price (sum of unemployment and underemployment) was 9.9 per cent, which places the claims that it is a tight labour market into perspective. There may be substantial scope for extra job creation given the slack that’s current.

The abstract seasonally-adjusted statistics for March 2025 are:

  • Employment rose 32,200 (0.2 per cent) – full-time employment rose by 15 thousand (0.2 per cent) and part-time employment rose by 17.2 thousand (0.4 per cent).
  • Unemployment rose by 3,000 (0.5 per cent) to 613,900.(
  • The unemployment price rose by 0.1 level (after rounding) to 4.1 per cent.
  • The participation price rose by 0.1 level (after rounding) to 66.8 per cent.
  • The Employment-population ratio was regular at 64.1 per cent to per cent.
  • Month-to-month hours labored fell by 6 million (-0.3 per cent).
  • Underemployment remained regular at 5.9 per cent (889.7 thousand).
  • The Broad Labour Underutilisation price (the sum of unemployment and underemployment) was regular at 9.92 per cent.
  • General, there are 1503.6 thousand folks both unemployed or underemployed.

The ABS press launch – Unemployment price at 4.1% in March – famous that:

With employment rising by 32,000 folks and the variety of unemployed rising by 3,000 folks, the unemployment price rose barely to 4.1 per cent for March.’

Employment has grown by 308,000 folks, or 2.2 per cent, during the last 12 months. This annual progress price is barely increased than the 20-year pre-pandemic common of two.0 per cent …

Month-to-month hours labored decreased by 0.3 per cent, falling for the second month in a row, regardless of the expansion in employment this month.

… The next than common variety of folks reported working decreased hours this month attributable to unhealthy climate, coinciding with ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred and different main climate occasions in New South Wales and Queensland …

Abstract

Weaker employment progress and a small uptick in participation resulted within the modest rise in unemployment.

Seasonal and climate elements had been at play and we won’t know till subsequent month whether or not the consecutive decline in working hours is a brand new downward development or not.

Employment progress was modest

  • Whole employment rose 32,200 (0.2 per cent) – which was the common progress price for the final 12 months.
  • Full-time employment rose by 15 thousand (0.2 per cent).
  • Half-time employment rose by 17.2 thousand (0.4 per cent).

The next graph reveals the expansion in complete, full-time, and part-time employment for the final 24 months.

Australia labour market – sluggish as progress slows – William Mitchell – Trendy Financial Idea

The next desk reveals the shifts during the last 6 months which helps to see the underlying development.

The very modest rise in employment has simply stored tempo with the rise within the labour power over this era, which is why the change in unemployment is near zero (900).

Nonetheless, the decline within the participation price has decreased the quantity in search of work, which has helped and it’s doubtless that hidden unemployment has risen considerably.

The Employment-to-Inhabitants ratio offers a measure of the state of the labour market that’s unbiased of the availability shifts within the labour market (pushed by the shifts within the participation price).

The underlying working age inhabitants grows steadily whereas the labour power shifts with each underlying inhabitants progress and the participation swings.

The next graph reveals the Employment-Inhabitants ratio which was regular at 64.1 per cent in March 2025.

The following graphs present the common month-to-month change in complete employment (first graph) and full- and part-time employment (second graph).

For complete employment the month-to-month common modifications had been:

  • 2022 – 44.5 thousand
  • 2023 – 30.8 thousand
  • 2024 – 34.4 thousand
  • 2025 up to now – 2.2 thousand

Month-to-month hours labored – decline by 0.3 per cent

Month-to-month hours labored decline by 5.9 million hours (-0.3 per cent) in March, the second consecutive decline.

As famous above there was some disruption to working preparations within the Month on account of excessive climate occasions in NSW and Queensland.

The next graph reveals the expansion in month-to-month hours labored for the final 24 months, with the straight line being a easy linear regression to point development.

Unemployment rose by 3,000 in March

With complete employment rising by 32,200 and the labour power rising by 35.3 thousand, official unemployment rose by round 3 thousand.

The unemployment price rose by 0.01 factors to 4.1 per cent.

The next graph reveals the evolution of the official unemployment price since 1980.

Broad labour underutilisation – 9.9 per cent in March

  • Underemployment remained regular at 5.9 per cent (889.7 thousand).
  • The Broad Labour Underutilisation price (the sum of unemployment and underemployment) was regular at 9.92 per cent.
  • General, there are 1503.6 thousand folks both unemployed or underemployed.

The next graph reveals the evolution of underemployment and the Broad labour underutilisation price since 1980.

Teenage labour market – full-time employment losses

  • Whole teenage (15-19) employment rose by 6.6 thousand (0.8 per cent) in March 2025.
  • Full-time employment fell by 2.4 thousand (-1.3 per cent).
  • Half-time employment rose by 9 thousand (1.4 per cent).

The next desk summarises the shifts within the teenage labour marketplace for the month and during the last 12 months.

To place these modifications right into a scale perspective (that’s, relative to measurement of the teenage labour power) the next graph reveals the shifts within the Employment-Inhabitants ratio for youngsters.

The Teenage Employment-Inhabitants ratios and their month-to-month modifications in March 2025were:

  • Males: 48 per cent -0.3 factors
  • Females: 52.8 per cent +0.8 factors
  • Whole: 50.4 per cent +0.2 factors

Conclusion

My customary warning to take care in deciphering month-to-month labour power modifications – they’ll fluctuate for numerous causes and it’s imprudent to leap to conclusions on the again of a single month’s information.

  • Employment progress rebounded in March from February’s unfavorable determine however was modest – simply maintaining tempo with the rise within the labour power, which itself was boosted by an increase within the participation price.
  • General, the labour market shouldn’t be displaying indicators of a major downturn but.
  • The broad labour underutilisation price (sum of unemployment and underemployment) was 9.9 per cent, which places the claims that it is a tight labour market into perspective. There may be substantial scope for extra job creation given the slack that’s current.

That’s sufficient for right this moment!

(c) Copyright 2025 William Mitchell. All Rights Reserved.

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