The rapidity of deposit outflows throughout the March 2023 banking run highlights the vital position that the Federal Reserve’s {discount} window ought to play in strengthening monetary stability. A scarcity of borrowing, nonetheless, has plagued the {discount} window for many years, seemingly resulting from banks’ considerations about stigma—that’s, their unwillingness to borrow on the {discount} window as a result of it might be seen as an indication of monetary weak spot within the eyes of regulators and market contributors. The {discount} window has been reformed a number of occasions to alleviate this drawback. Though the presence of stigma throughout the nice monetary disaster has been documented empirically, we have no idea whether or not stigma has remained since then. On this publish, primarily based on a latest Workers Report, we fill this hole by utilizing transaction-level knowledge from the federal funds market to look at whether or not the {discount} window stays stigmatized in the present day.
Stigma and Realized Stigma
Empirically, stigma could also be recognized by the presence of a unfold over the {discount} window major credit score charge {that a} financial institution is keen to pay to keep away from borrowing on the window. Nevertheless, a financial institution’s willingness to pay will not be observable. As an alternative, we observe “realized stigma:” how rather more a financial institution really pays above the first credit score charge to borrow. Realized stigma and stigma should not equal. Realized stigma supplies a decrease sure on the extent of stigma. Specifically, even when a financial institution doesn’t really pay a premium (as an example, as a result of it borrows on the interbank market beneath the first credit score charge, thus implying no realized stigma), it might have been keen to take action ex-ante.
Proof of realized stigma, however, is informative: it signifies that stigma is certainly current. In our paper, we comply with the financial literature and measure realized stigma by taking a look at transactions within the federal funds market, the over-the-counter in a single day U.S. interbank marketplace for funds held by banks on the Fed; we interpret a financial institution buying federal funds above the first credit score charge as proof of stigma.
Realized Stigma since 2014
The chart beneath plots the proportion of federal funds quantity bought above the first credit score charge between 2014 and July 2024. We discover little proof of stigma earlier than the COVID-19 pandemic, with lower than 0.1 p.c of federal funds transactions bought above the first credit score charge.
Proof of Low cost Window Stigma
Notes: This chart exhibits the proportion of federal funds quantity bought by home banks above the {discount} window charge every day between April 1, 2014 and July 1, 2024. A constructive worth may be interpreted as proof of {discount} window stigma. The beginning of the final three main monetary disruptions (the September 2019 repo market disruption, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the March 2023 banking turmoil) are indicated by dashed vertical strains.
The onset of the pandemic noticed a pointy improve in realized stigma. Between March 11 and March 31, 2020, 28 p.c of federal funds borrowing occurred above the first credit score charge, with each sort of financial institution displaying proof of realized stigma.
Proof of stigma pale within the months that adopted the pandemic however resurfaced a number of months earlier than the 2023 banking turmoil. Between July 2022 and March 2023, an rising share of federal funds (15 p.c, on common) was bought by home banks above the first credit score charge. Surprisingly, realized stigma didn’t surge after the failure of Silicon Valley Financial institution (SVB) on March 9, 2023. In actual fact, the post-pandemic peak in realized stigma occurred in December 2022. Nonetheless, the common dimension of the stigma unfold (the unfold paid over the {discount} window charge) greater than doubled, from 10 foundation factors (bps) within the pre-banking turmoil interval to 22 bps within the weeks that adopted the failure of SVB.
Be aware that realized stigma is widespread in troubled banks. Banks that confirmed indicators of stigma between 2014 and 2024 have been thrice extra prone to have failed over the identical interval. Furthermore, out of the twenty-two banks that suffered a run throughout the 2023 banking turmoil, 9 had skilled realized stigma within the previous ninety-day interval.
We additionally discover that realized stigma will not be resulting from a scarcity of prepositioned collateral on the {discount} window; that’s, it isn’t resulting from banks’ lack of operational readiness. Specifically, a financial institution that bought federal funds above the {discount} window charge throughout the 2023 banking turmoil might have obtained virtually 80 p.c of these funds (on common) from the {discount} window, primarily based on the quantity of collateral it had prepositioned on the {discount} window.
The Determinants of Realized Stigma
To higher perceive the determinants of realized stigma, we conduct a statistical evaluation. The outcomes reveal a extremely statistically and economically important persistence in realized stigma: banks that borrow federal funds above the {discount} window charge are about 40 p.c extra seemingly to take action once more the next month. According to stigma, banks that don’t go to the {discount} window are considerably extra prone to present subsequent realized stigma.
Furthermore, a financial institution is considerably extra prone to show realized stigma after rising in dimension, changing into financially weaker (that’s, having a decrease ratio of U.S. Treasury securities or the next ratio of held-to-maturity losses), or when its share of different funding sources declines (decrease Federal Residence Mortgage Financial institution borrowing). Trying on the post-June 2022 interval, when stigma turned prevalent, a few of these determinants modified; particularly, banks with decrease money holdings and better uninsured deposit liabilities turned extra prone to exhibit realized stigma.
Concluding Remarks
On this publish, we current proof of {discount} window stigma within the years because the world monetary disaster utilizing transaction-level knowledge from the federal funds market. Proof of realized stigma is especially sturdy round intervals of monetary market turmoil, comparable to throughout the COVID-19 pandemic and the March 2023 banking turmoil. Our outcomes recommend that {discount} window stigma remains to be a difficulty, probably limiting the {discount} window’s potential to ameliorate monetary stability in occasions of turmoil.
Olivier Armantier is a professor on the Financial Science Institute, Chapman College.
Marco Cipriani is the top of Cash and Funds Research within the Federal Reserve Financial institution of New York’s Analysis and Statistics Group.
Asani Sarkar is a monetary analysis advisor in Non-Financial institution Monetary Establishment Research within the Federal Reserve Financial institution of New York’s Analysis and Statistics Group.
cite this publish:
Olivier Armantier, Marco Cipriani, and Asani Sarkar, “Low cost Window Stigma After the World Monetary Disaster,” Federal Reserve Financial institution of New York Liberty Avenue Economics, January 17, 2025, https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2025/01/discount-window-stigma-after-the-global-financial-crisis/.
Disclaimer
The views expressed on this publish are these of the creator(s) and don’t essentially mirror the place of the Federal Reserve Financial institution of New York or the Federal Reserve System. Any errors or omissions are the duty of the creator(s).