Seeing that it’s February, I assumed I’d take the time to remind everybody that mortgage charges are lowest within the month of February!
That is primarily based on my very own analysis during which I took Freddie Mac Major Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) information going again to 1972.
I tallied up the typical month-to-month fee for the 30-year mounted for the previous 50 years and located that February was by far the perfect.
For the report, January is a detailed second and March isn’t too dangerous both, however charges are likely to rise because the yr goes on.
In different phrases, for those who’re purchasing mortgage charges, you may need to lock on this month.
February Is the Greatest Month for Mortgage Charges Traditionally
As you possibly can see from my chart, the 30-year mounted averaged 7.62% in February, per Freddie Mac.
We now have a really massive pattern dimension that extends roughly 50 years so there’s no scarcity of information neither is it a fluke.
In line with stated information, the 30-year mounted averaged 7.62% in February stretching again to 1972.
That compares to a fee of seven.64% in January and a fee of seven.70% in March.
Then we see charges hit their highest ranges of the yr within the spring and summer time months, with 7.79% the height in Might and June.
It’s form of fascinating as a result of dwelling gross sales peak round that point too (go determine). So dwelling consumers, on common, get saddled with the very best charges.
Recently Mortgage Charges Have Been Lowest in September
For the report, the years 2024 and 2025 didn’t comply with this pattern, as seen in these MND charts.
As a substitute, mortgage charges have been lowest in September in each years, although not for any specific motive.
In 2024, they fell for a lot of the yr because the market anticipated the primary Fed fee reduce (and mushy information supported it). Then bounced increased on a sizzling jobs report and Trump win.
However as anticipated, spring 2024 was the worst time interval for mortgage charges.
In 2025, it was once more mushy financial information after a lot of Trump’s new insurance policies like tariffs started to fade all year long.
Apparently, mortgage charges have been highest in January and February in 2025. However the caveat was Trump was newly elected and there was a whole lot of inflation-driven concern on the time.
And once more, mortgage charges weren’t a lot decrease in spring, so once more March/April/Might tended to be not a good time to lock in a fee.
So maybe a special method of wanting on the information is that spring is mostly the worst season for mortgage charges.
And winter is usually the perfect, although you need to take note of present occasions, whether or not it’s a Presidential election or the top of Quantitative Easing (QE).
Whether or not September 2026 is one more profitable month for mortgage charges stays to be seen.
February Might As soon as Once more Be a Profitable Month for Mortgage Charges
The best way issues are shaping up, this February might nonetheless be the large winner because it has been traditionally, particularly if that delayed January jobs report is available in mushy subsequent Wednesday.
There’s additionally CPI on Friday, so we’ll have a clearer image lower than per week from now.
If these stories are available in chilly, which is completely doable and even perhaps possible primarily based on stories we’ve already seen like ADP and Challenger, mortgage charges might sink to the bottom ranges in three years.
And it’s even doable we might see a sub-6% 30-year mounted mortgage fee this month as nicely.
Should you’re out there to purchase a house or refinance an current mortgage, pay shut consideration. It’s a probably massive week.
However as you possibly can see, there’s no assure mortgage charges might be lowest in a given week or month. And even yr.
Nevertheless, there are definitely some developments to concentrate on and to bear in mind so as to add to your mortgage fee monitoring instruments.
And whatever the month or yr, know that yearly is stuffed with alternatives the place mortgage charges plunge, generally just for a day or two. So at all times be able to pounce!
Earlier than creating this web site, I labored as an account government for a wholesale mortgage lender in Los Angeles. My hands-on expertise within the early 2000s impressed me to start writing about mortgages 19 years in the past to assist potential (and current) dwelling consumers higher navigate the house mortgage course of. Observe me on X for warm takes.