Yves right here. The ruling Polish management is outwardly nervous that Musk will quickly flip his consideration to Poland’s upcoming Might elections after he roughs up and maybe even routs the already weak UK prime minister Kier Starmer. I do know the spectacle of billionaires brazenly attempting to affect nominally democratic processes is just not a fairly image. However after the US has engaged in many years of sometimes profitable regime change operations, it’s entertaining to see the howling when officers in colonialist areas of the world (as in Masters of the Universe wannabes or hangers-on) get a style of the drugs they promoted, or at finest ignored, in different elements of the world as a result of it promoted their neoliberal agenda.
And naturally none of those neoliberal governments had any downside with the massive rise in earnings and wealth inequality that basically bought traction after Reagan’s and Thatcher’s financial insurance policies had been embraced (or pushed) all around the world. And that system has produced a person so rich that he can attempt to and will reach toppling governments. Who’s have thunk it?
Readers who comply with European affairs little doubt recall the present Polish overseas minister Radek Sikorski for his response to the destruction of three of the 4 Nordstream 2 pipelines (he deleted the tweet but it surely nonetheless lives on Twitter):
So former overseas minister and now EU lawmaker Radosław Sikorski’s tweet thanking USA for blowing up NordStream was proper? Good to know. pic.twitter.com/LcVWBCK1mk
— Mats Nilsson (@mazzenilsson) September 7, 2023
His spouse is the rabidly anti-Russian commentator Anne Applebaum, so there aren’t any doubts about the place he stands on Russia.
Under Andrew Korybko discusses the potential for Musk turning his consideration to Poland, the place within the final election, a liberal (as in firmly pro-EU and NATO) coalition changed management by the “nationalist and conservative” Regulation and Justice (PiS) social gathering, which amongst different issues, campaigned in 2023 elections on taking a softer line on Russia. PiS Russia-hostile social gathering garnered probably the most votes however the #2 winner, the Civic Coalition (PO), led by Donald Tusk, fashioned a authorities with different events.
For extra element on Romania’s constitutional coup, see Conor’s submit, Democracy Dies within the EU: Romania Version.
By Andrew Korybko, a Moscow-based American political analyst who specializes within the international systemic transition to multipolarity within the New Chilly Warfare. He has a PhD from MGIMO, which is below the umbrella of the Russian Overseas Ministry. Initially printed at his web site
If Musk tries to cease Polish Liberals from capturing the presidency, they’ll both attempt to block this by means of scandalous authorized strikes that threat a nationwide disaster, which may even break Poland’s relations with the US, or they’ll let all the things unfold nevertheless it’s going to.
Polish Overseas Minister Radek Sikorski echoed French President Emmanuel Macron’s issues that Elon Musk’s social media campaigns in help of the AfD opposition in Germany and towards incumbent British Prime Minister Keir Starmer quantity to meddling. He additionally referred to as for Poland to move new legal guidelines “so that it’s the Polish individuals who select our president, not foreigners”, which is ironic contemplating his friendshipwith George Soros’ son and inheritor Alex, whose father has meddled in Europe for many years.
It was assessed late final month that “Orban Hopes That Trump Will Assist Polish Conservatives Return To Energy”, ergo why he granted asylum to an opposition determine who alleged that he was being politically persecuted. In reference to that, readers had been reminded shortly after Trump’s historic electoral victory that “High Polish Politicians’ Irresponsible Previous Statements About Trump Imperil Bilateral Ties” after Sikorski and his boss Donald Tusk’s impolite remarks concerning the returning American chief resurfaced.
Trump is shut pals with outgoing Polish President Andrzej Duda, who’s a fellow conservative-nationalist that’s stayed in contact with him over time, so it follows that he’d want for his social gathering’s candidate Karol Nawrocki to succeed him versus the liberal-globalist Rafal Trzaskowski. To that finish, it’s predictable that Musk may attempt to cease the ruling liberals from capturing the presidency throughout Might’s election, which may take the type of replicating his current campaigns however with a Polish contact.
This may result in him passionately advocating for the Regulation & Justice (PiS) opposition in parallel with haranguing towards Tusk, Sikorski, and Trzaskowski. PiS’ position as one of the pro-American events in European historical past may very well be emphasised as may the ruling “Civic Platform’s” (PO) “wokeness” with regard to LGBT. Likewise, Musk may ignore PiS’ visas-for-bribes scandal that introduced a quarter-million Africans and Asians to Europe the identical as he may ignore PO’s sturdy border safety coverage.
The precedent created by Romania annulling the primary spherical of its presidential election final month on the pretext that overseas social media help for the frontrunner discredited the outcomes, which was later revealed to have really been a botched marketing campaign by his personal opponents, may very well be utilized to Poland too. The distinction between Romania and Poland, nevertheless, is that the primary’s constitutional coup had the Biden Administration’s backing whereas Trump undoubtedly received’t again that very same state of affairs within the second.
About that chance, it was reported final month that Tusk’s authorities “will suggest that, for subsequent 12 months’s Polish presidential election in Might, the certification of the consequence needs to be dealt with by the labour legislation chamber of the Supreme Court docket and never, as ordained by current electoral legislation, the supervisory chamber of the identical courtroom.” The bigger context behind this proposal issues Tusk and the EU’s long-running claims that PiS politicized the Supreme Court docket throughout its near-decade in energy.
The aforementioned report elaborated that “The Polish Authorities, together with the European Fee and the European Court docket of Justice, have argued that the supervisory chamber was improperly constituted as its members had been appointed by PiS ally President Andrzej Duda on suggestion of the Nationwide Judicial Council (KRS).” It’s past the scope of the current evaluation to dive deeper into the small print of this dispute but it surely’s sufficient for informal observers to easily pay attention to it.
The importance is that Tusk’s authorities may unilaterally implement this proposal, subsequently annul the outcomes of the primary spherical if Nawrocki wins, reject any ruling towards this by the Supreme Court docket or the allegedly “PiS-dominated Constitutional Tribunal”, and rely as a substitute on the European Fee and the European Court docket of Justice to legitimize their constitutional coup. Any pushback from the Trump Administration may thus provoke a really critical political disaster with each Poland but in addition the EU.
If Trump decides to cross the Rubicon on this respect, then he may both threaten punishing tariffs towards the EU as an entire, trace at focused sanctions towards Poland’s ruling liberal-globalists, and/or flirt with drastically curbing the US’ army presence in Poland and presumably freezing main arms offers. The last-mentioned possibility is probably the most radical because it dangers ruining the anti-Russian foundation upon which the Polish-US Strategic Partnership is constructed however may nonetheless be employed to impress nationalist protests.
Therein lies the opposite trick up Trump’s sleeve since he may process Musk with pulling a web page from Soros’ playbook through the use of X to incite large-scale protests for maximally pressuring the ruling liberal-globalists at what would by then be one other pivotal second in Poland’s historical past. Furthermore, the footage of any violent crackdown towards these peaceable protesters may then virally flow into on X to incite much more protests, which may very well be paired with sanctions towards these officers who’re answerable for this.
Tusk would due to this fact do effectively to learn the writing on the wall and let Might’s vote play out nevertheless it’s going to, accepting that it’s unattainable to fully get rid of overseas affect in up to date elections as a result of social media and never daring to use that because the pretext for annulling the vote if Nawrocki wins. It’s higher to take care of the established order of a conservative-nationalist within the presidency and liberal-globalists operating parliament than to threat a nationwide disaster that might additionally break relations with the US.
The one motive why Tusk desires Trzaskowski to seize the presidency is in order that PiS not opposes PO’s plans to transform Polish society. The worst that may thus occur if Nawrocki wins is that Tusk isn’t in a position to absolutely implement his legislative agenda, thus perpetuating the political stalemate of the previous 12 months until the subsequent parliamentary elections in 2027, except they’re referred to as earlier. Trump will nonetheless be in workplace by then, nevertheless, so Musk may also “meddle” in that vote too with a wink and a nod from him.
In any case, as was simply written, social media allows overseas figures and governments to affect elections in different nations. There’s no option to fully get rid of this issue both for the reason that proliferation of VPNs neutralizes potential bans, ergo the significance of prioritizing “Pre-Bunking, Media Literacy, & Democratic Safety” as a substitute as argued within the previous hyperlinked evaluation from 2022. These are way more efficient means since they purpose to inoculate residents from overseas influences.
Wrapping all the things up, Sikorski’s feedback about Musk’s social media campaigns in Germany and the UK recommend that Poland’s ruling liberal-globalists are panicking since they concern that he’ll quickly flip his consideration to their nation as a way to cease them from capturing the presidency throughout Might’s election. They’ll accordingly both attempt to cease this by means of scandalous authorized strikes that threat a nationwide disaster, which may even break Poland’s relations with the US, or they’ll let all the things unfold nevertheless it’s going to.
