Wow, that analyis of TFF and the barrel market is nice!
You must add the hyperlink for his first evaluation: https://wintergems.substack.com/p/tonnellerie-francois-freres-high
This jogs my memory to the primary brief worth introduction at your weblog, by Matze in German: https://valueandopportunity.com/2011/01/16/core-value-tonnellerie-francois-freres/
(Disclaimer: A share value of 28€ in 2011 compares to 7€ in 2024 because the share break up 4:1 some years in the past)
Stand there in 2011 and picture till 2024 they not solely to develop their french wine barrel market share rose from 20% in 2011 to 30% (160 Mio€) – that half was expectable, as they startet with aquisitions.
However as effectively develop a scottish whisky barrel market share from zero to 90% of impartial barrel producers (~80 Mio€).
And develop the american bourbon whisky barrel market share from zero to 25% (~200 Mio€), quickly in all probability 30%.
Wow!
It appears like they’re on their method of cornering and almost monopolizing the worldwide wood barrel market.
Solely a doubt about WinterGems thougths about moats: I comply with the thesis that the french barrel market could be very moaty, market share wins come primarily by aquisitions.
However their quick, primarily natural improve of market share within the scottish and american whisky barrel markets is a touch of “unmoaty” markets. May good, new challengers additionally very quick take away market shares from TFF as TFF bought them?
The shareprice will get fascinating once more, as TFFs share is in free fall.
I take into consideration opening the place that I missed in 2011.