Trump’s ‘America First’ agenda will hit international progress, economists inform FT polls

Immediately’s agenda: “Terrorism” in New Orleans; shipowners swap to smaller vessels; gold set to rise larger; what to look at this 12 months; and FT critics decide the most popular tickets of 2025

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Good morning, and completely satisfied new 12 months. We begin 2025 by asking greater than 220 economists how progress can be affected by Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda.

What’s the influence of ‘Maganomics’? Whereas his precise plans are nonetheless unclear, most respondents anticipate the president-elect’s protectionist insurance policies to overshadow the advantages of different components. Many economists within the US additionally consider the brand new Trump time period will spur inflation and make the Federal Reserve extra cautious about slicing rates of interest.

Nonetheless, most economists — together with these on the IMF, the OECD and the European Fee — forecast stronger progress within the US than in Europe in 2025. One analyst mentioned Trump’s plans, which embrace threats of blanket tariffs and mass deportations, could convey some short-term progress however “on the expense of a world slowdown which then will come again and harm the US in a while”.

Why it issues: For the Eurozone, the primary concern is about manufacturing, with the automotive trade in Germany — the area’s greatest economic system — particularly in danger. Trump’s menace of a 60 per cent levy on China may additionally increase the prospect of Beijing flooding the area with low-cost merchandise. One economist mentioned the UK, although seen as higher insulated from tariffs, could possibly be uncovered to a “second-round influence” ought to tariffs weigh on Eurozone progress.

“The Trump administration can be an ‘unpredictability machine’ which can dissuade enterprise and households from taking long-term choices with ease,” mentioned PwC UK’s chief economist. “It will inevitably have an financial price.”

Be part of FT specialists on January 23 for a subscriber-only webinar, as they talk about what Trump’s return to the White Home means for America and the world. Register without spending a dime right here. And right here’s what else I’m holding tabs on right this moment:

• Financial knowledge: The Eurozone, US, France and Germany have manufacturing buying managers’ indices, as does the UK, which additionally has the Nationwide home value index.

• Monetary markets: Buying and selling resumes within the US, UK and different nations after yesterday’s break.

For a preview of key occasions in 2025, take a look at the newest version of our Week Forward publication.

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5 extra high tales

1. The FBI is investigating an “act of terrorism” after a person drove a pick-up truck into a big crowd within the coronary heart of New Orleans yesterday, killing not less than 15 individuals and injuring 35. US President Joe Biden mentioned authorities had been additionally investigating the explosion of a Tesla Cybertruck outdoors the Trump resort in Las Vegas to see if the 2 incidents had been associated. Learn the total story.

2. Shipowners are shifting on from the period of ordering ever-larger vessels and switching to smaller crafts as a substitute, in line with trade knowledge. The change is being prompted by the rerouting of world commerce from China to ports elsewhere in Asia, and the disruption is just anticipated to proceed with Trump’s return to the White Home this month.

3. The worth of gold is ready to climb additional in 2025 though the tempo of beneficial properties is prone to sluggish after final 12 months’s bumper 27 per cent rally. Analysts surveyed by the Monetary Occasions anticipate gold to succeed in about $2,795 per troy ounce by the tip of the 12 months, or about 7 per cent above present ranges. Right here’s why the value of the yellow steel is prone to rise.

4. Unique: Job losses at European automotive half suppliers greater than doubled in 2024 because the slowdown within the continent’s automotive trade hit the fortunes of its manufacturing provide chain. Job creation has additionally slowed and there have been greater than 58,000 internet job losses throughout the trade in Europe since 2020.

5. Russian fuel flows by Ukraine stopped within the early hours of yesterday after a transit deal between the 2 nations expired within the wake of Moscow’s full-scale invasion. The pipeline was one of many final two routes nonetheless carrying Russian fuel to Europe, almost three years into the full-scale battle. EU nations will lose about 5 per cent of fuel imports in the course of winter.

What to look at in 2025

Monetary Occasions reporters think about the rise of “sovereign” synthetic intelligence, the prospects for electrical automotive gross sales and whether or not the “masters of the universe” can be investing your pension financial savings, in our survey of enterprise traits within the 12 months forward.

We’re additionally studying . . . 

• Crypto’s golden period: The sector expects lighter regulation and wider adoption underneath Donald Trump, however some fear about systemic dangers.

• Photo voltaic sector: The trade is going through “a whole lot of misery” after a collapse in demand triggered a wave of bankruptcies in Germany, its most vital European market.

• Monetary to-do listing: From money-saving work perks to investments and tax planning, Claer Barrett has 10 ideas to get your funds in form this new 12 months.

• ‘Friendshoring’: The ugly, eviscerating saga round Nippon Metal’s takeover bid for US Metal exhibits why it’s laborious to be a good friend of America, writes Leo Lewis.

Chart of the day

Nvidia has emerged as a vital backer of start-ups attempting to achieve from the bogus intelligence revolution its chips are powering. The semiconductor group has been pumping ever higher sums into a few of its personal clients, investing $1bn in AI firms in 2024.

Take a break from the information

The FT’s critics decide the most anticipated scorching tickets in 2025, from movie, theatre, dance and TV to artwork exhibitions, video games, pop and classical music.