Rising charges of incapacity colliding with larger monetary hardship are pushing extra individuals to hunt assist
A part of the federal government’s justification for its cuts to incapacity and incapacity advantages is that the variety of disabled working-age individuals in England and Wales has risen by 17% because the pandemic, however the variety of individuals receiving incapacity[i] or incapacity advantages[ii] has elevated by double this price – 34%. The implication appears to be that these advantages are going to people who they weren’t supposed to assist.
Whereas this sounds, on paper, like a regarding development, in actuality it could merely point out that reputable demand for these advantages isn’t solely decided by whether or not extra individuals are disabled.
First, allow us to take into account why the variety of disabled working-age individuals might have risen by 17%. We all know that the pandemic had large knock-on penalties for well being and well being inequalities. This has been compounded by a cost-of-living disaster that has additionally had profound impacts on our well being. Psychological well being has been notably affected, with 36% extra individuals involved with psychological well being providers in 2024 than in 2019. That is mirrored in a steep rise in claims for incapacity advantages the place psychological well being issues are cited as somebody’s ‘main situation’.
Nonetheless, this authorities argues that the variety of individuals receiving incapacity and incapacity advantages has grown twice as quick as the speed of progress in disabilities. It might appear intuitive {that a} rise in claims for these advantages could be pushed primarily by an increase within the variety of disabled individuals, however in actuality many disabled individuals don’t declare related monetary assist. This could possibly be as a result of they aren’t conscious of what’s out there, they’re delay by the often-strenuous strategy of proving eligibility, or they don’t really feel they want extra assist.
The rise in incapacity and incapacity profit claims is due to this fact depending on tendencies in each incapacity and the proportion of disabled people who find themselves eligible for and apply for assist. By evaluating the entire variety of disabled individuals – outlined utilizing the Equality Act – to the quantity claiming incapacity and/or incapacity advantages, we will see that the proportion of disabled individuals claiming these advantages stood at round 40% earlier than the pandemic however has since grown to 46%.
Whereas the federal government argues that the rise in charges of incapacity is out of step with the rise in these claiming incapacity and incapacity advantages, this might merely be right down to larger reputable take-up price throughout the disabled inhabitants, fairly than elevated claims from individuals for whom the profit was not supposed.
The principle change that the federal government is proposing in response is to tighten eligibility for the private independence fee (PIP), resulting in 800,000 fewer individuals receiving the profit by 2029 – 30. PIP is the profit for which there was the largest post-pandemic improve in claims – 28% of disabled individuals obtained the profit in 2019, rising to 33% in 2023. As a result of it’s non-means examined and never based mostly on working standing, it additionally permits us to discover a wider vary of mediating elements that may clarify why claims have elevated.
The very first thing to contemplate is whether or not the evaluation success price has modified for individuals making use of for PIP. A falling success price would recommend extra individuals are making use of who the profit was not supposed for or that the evaluation is getting more durable to go. A rising success price would recommend the evaluation is getting simpler to go or that extra individuals are making use of with disabilities which have a larger impression on their lives.
Nonetheless, we discover a pretty static success price, suggesting that the profit is constant to go to the individuals it was supposed to assist despite the fact that extra individuals are making use of. This that not all disabled individuals who could also be eligible for PIP are claiming, which in flip means that different elements are mediating whether or not individuals apply past simply the severity and impression of their disabilities.
One other method to perceive these tendencies is to take a look at how ranges of PIP claims fluctuate throughout the nation. By doing this, we will look at how a lot this distribution is accounted for by incapacity prevalence and – crucially – what else would possibly assist to elucidate any variation. We discover that the geographical unfold of the areas which have the very best variety of disabled individuals (on the left of determine 3) is similar to the areas of the nation which have probably the most quantity of individuals claiming PIP (on the suitable).
Determine 3: The areas of the nation with the very best incapacity prevalence have the very best PIP claims
Variety of disabled individuals and PIP caseload by native authority
Notes: Figures taken from December 2024 for incapacity prevalence and January 2025 for PIP caseload
Supply: NEF Evaluation of the Labour Pressure Survey (LFS) Private Independence Fee: Instances with Entitlement from 2019 (DWP)
We will see this additional by inserting all of the areas on the x axis of determine 4 based mostly on how many individuals declare PIP, and the variety of disabled individuals in that area on the y axis. This reveals that there’s a robust correlation between these two variables, that means that, as you’ll count on, areas with excessive numbers of disabled individuals additionally see excessive numbers of PIP claims.
Whereas this correlation is powerful, there may be nonetheless some unexplained variation, equivalent to Buckinghamshire which has a excessive proportion of incapacity prevalence however a decrease variety of individuals claiming PIP than we’d count on. However as Buckinghamshire is a extra prosperous area, it’s potential that fewer disabled individuals within the area really feel the necessity to declare incapacity advantages.
We will prolong this evaluation with a sequence of regressions to check if regional social and financial drawback performs a job in explaining regional PIP caseload at a specific cut-off date. By itself, the variety of disabled individuals explains 71% of the PIP caseload in a specific area. However once we add every area’s relative deprivation utilizing the Index of A number of Deprivation (IMD) we will clarify 94% of the regional PIP caseload.
We all know that disabled individuals have struggled specifically in the course of the cost-of-living disaster. 12% of disabled individuals report not to have the ability to pay their payments previously 12 months, in comparison with 5% of non-disabled individuals. The proportion of disabled individuals who can’t reliably afford enough wholesome meals rose from 11% in 2021 – 22 to 16% in 2023 – 24. For non-disabled individuals, these figures rose from 3% to six%.
Relatively than indicating that PIP is being awarded to individuals much less in want or deserving of the assist than previously, our evaluation means that the rise in claims is symptomatic of rising charges of incapacity mixed with worsening hardship. An increase in incapacity makes extra individuals eligible for PIP, whereas worsening hardship signifies that extra individuals who have been beforehand eligible for PIP, however didn’t apply for it, now really feel the necessity to apply for added monetary assist.
On this foundation, it appears unlikely that the proposed tightening of eligibility for PIP as the federal government is planning will obtain a lot aside from inflicting additional hardship for a gaggle struggling probably the most because the pandemic. It’s additionally probably that the associated fee financial savings from this will not be as excessive as assumed, because it’s typically the case that profit cuts and/or tightened eligibility end in individuals transitioning from one advantages system to a different one (eg, council tax aid) as they seek for various monetary assist.
As a substitute, the federal government must develop a plan for addressing the underlying elements which are main extra individuals to turn into disabled or expertise ill-health, in addition to an financial technique to scale back the variety of individuals expertise monetary insecurity.
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