Danny Walker, Dong Lou, Gabor Pinter and Semih Üslü
Authorities bond yields are likely to drift larger within the days earlier than financial coverage or information information within the UK. Over the previous 20 years this tendency – which we label ‘pre-news drift’ – has pushed up on yields by 2 proportion factors in complete over that interval. The drift concentrates in pre-news durations that coincide with the issuance of UK authorities bonds, which is extra frequent than it was. Our evaluation reveals that sellers and hedge funds are reluctant to purchase bonds when information is on its method, which pushes up yields. Pre-news drift may have an effect on the sign financial coverage makers draw from market charges and it may have implications for the optimum timing of bond issuance. There are additional particulars in an related working paper.
Bond yields drift larger when financial coverage bulletins or macroeconomic information information are anticipated
Bond yields transfer round when information is launched, particularly information that tells buyers one thing about financial coverage or the economic system. That received’t be shocking to anybody. It’s a lot much less apparent that yields ought to transfer in any explicit route earlier than the information has arrived. However that’s precisely what we observe within the historic information for the UK: a bent that we label ‘pre-news drift’.
We analyse UK authorities bond yields since Financial institution of England independence in 1997 and concentrate on durations within the lead as much as financial coverage bulletins by the Financial Coverage Committee and inflation and labour market information releases by the ONS – each of that are scheduled releases, and due to this fact anticipated by the market.
Chart 1 reveals that bond yields are likely to drift upwards on common within the two days earlier than the information is launched. They have an inclination to float down on days which can be outdoors these home windows. This pre-news drift isn’t small – it has pushed up on yields by 2 proportion factors, which compares to a complete fall of 6–7 proportion factors since 1997. We present within the paper that the drift has been bigger at longer maturities and is usually accounted for by threat premia, fairly than financial coverage expectations. On this weblog we set out our evaluation of what’s behind the drift.
Chart 1: Bond yields are likely to rise within the two days earlier than financial coverage bulletins or macroeconomic information releases within the UK, and so they fall outdoors of these durations
Sources: Financial institution of England and ONS.
The pre-news drift is concentrated in durations after the DMO has issued authorities bonds
Pre-news drift seems to be associated to the timing of the issuance of UK authorities bonds – often called gilts – by the Debt Administration Workplace (DMO). The pre-news drift proven in Chart 1 virtually solely happens in pre-news home windows which can be preceded by bond issuance. This might imply, for instance, home windows the place bond issuance on a Tuesday is adopted both by a labour market information launch on Wednesday or a financial coverage announcement on Thursday (or each).
Easy regressions detailed within the paper – which management for different related elements – reveal that the day by day change in 10 and 20-year UK yields throughout pre-news home windows is round 0.5 foundation factors bigger on common than yield modifications outdoors pre-news home windows. That may be considered a baseline. However this distinction rises as excessive as 1.1 foundation factors when the pre-news window is preceded by bond issuance. Cumulating these small variations in day by day yield modifications over a number of years explains the a lot bigger 2 proportion level upwards drift highlighted in Chart 1.
You would possibly anticipate the pre-news drift to unwind after the information has arrived – in any other case yields would stay completely larger. We use regressions to analyse this within the paper and discover no clear proof for a reversal of the pre-news drift over the next couple of days. However after all this doesn’t rule out it taking place. A reversal could be in keeping with the downwards drift in different durations proven in Chart 1.
Occasions the place financial coverage and macroeconomic information information coincide with bond issuance are more and more frequent
The issuance of UK authorities debt has elevated prior to now couple of many years – gross issuance averaged £26 billion within the Nineties and £140 billion within the 2010s. This has meant that there are increasingly more durations the place financial coverage bulletins and macroeconomic information releases are preceded by DMO issuance: the pre-news home windows in our evaluation.
Chart 2 reveals that in some years each financial coverage announcement was preceded by DMO bond issuance. These traits imply that the pre-news drift that we describe on this weblog has been – and can probably stay – an necessary function of the bond market.
Chart 2: It has turn out to be more and more frequent for financial coverage selections or macroeconomic information releases to be preceded by UK authorities bond issuance lower than two days earlier
Sources: Financial institution of England, DMO and ONS.
The restricted intermediation capability of sellers and hedge funds explains the drift
Why does pre-news drift occur? Our evaluation reveals that the reply comes all the way down to the behaviour of monetary intermediaries like funding banks – or sellers – and hedge funds. Current work has highlighted the significance of stability sheet constraints for bond market dynamics. Sellers within the UK bond market are chargeable for shopping for a share of newly issued authorities bonds after which they have an inclination to promote them on to different buyers. However we use transaction-level information to indicate that when information is anticipated, sellers don’t need to be caught holding too many bonds in case the information causes sudden worth drops. Because of this, they rush to promote the bonds they purchase within the public sale, which pushes costs down and drives yields up.
Our evaluation additionally factors to a shift in who steps in to purchase bonds throughout pre-news durations. Hedge funds, that are often lively consumers, have a tendency to drag again as a result of they need to keep away from committing to positions that may want reversing nearer to the information occasion. Of their place, much less lively buyers – resembling pension funds – tackle a much bigger position. These buyers assist preserve market liquidity, however additionally they demand larger returns for taking over threat throughout these durations, once more driving yields up.
Is pre-news drift only a UK factor?
There’s a temptation to imagine that the pre-news drift reveals one thing distinctive in regards to the UK’s authorities bond market. Certainly, a current examine confirmed that yields drift in the wrong way – downwards – round Federal Reserve (FOMC) financial coverage bulletins within the US, which is inconsistent with our evaluation at face worth. Nonetheless, Chart 3 reveals that if we concentrate on FOMC bulletins which can be preceded by issuance of US treasuries – the blue line within the chart – yields drift upwards, very similar to they do within the UK. This means that comparable market dynamics could be at play within the US as properly.
Chart 3: Whereas US bond yields are likely to fall round Federal financial coverage bulletins, they rise when these bulletins are preceded by issuance of US treasuries
Supply: Financial institution of England.
Coverage implications
Pre-news drift has implications for financial and financial policymakers and divulges a slender channel by means of which financial and financial coverage work together. First, pre-news drift may pollute the sign that financial coverage makers ought to draw from market rates of interest. The usage of averaging durations for market charges helps keep away from undue emphasis on short-term volatility in charges. But when it persists, the drift would possibly create a necessity for policymakers to change their coverage selections to offset modifications in market charges that don’t mirror the financial outlook. In step with this, in our paper we present that pre-news drift tends to be adopted by larger strikes in market charges round financial coverage bulletins. Second, there are implications for a way issuers decide the socially optimum timing of presidency bond issuance – it would make sense for them to keep away from durations the place there’s impending information.
Danny Walker works within the Governors’ workplaces, Dong Lou is professor at London Faculty of Economics and HKUST, Gabor Pinter is an economist on the Financial institution for Worldwide Settlements and Semih Üslü is a professor at Johns Hopkins College.
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