There are many theories of what introduced down Azerbaijan Airways flight J2-8243 on Christmas Day. The airplane, which was touring from the Azerbaijani capital Baku to Grozny within the Russian area of Chechnya, bumped into bother over Russia and made an emergency touchdown in Aktau, Kazakhstan, wherein 38 of the 67 individuals on board had been killed.
The black packing containers from the plane are presently being analyzed at Brazil’s Middle for Investigation and Prevention of Aeronautical Accidents, however what’s already clear is that some have already made up their minds that Russia is accountable. Media within the US and Europe had been in fact fast to level the finger. That’s unsurprising; they blame Moscow for each stubbed toe and spilt espresso.
What’s stunning is that the president of Azerbaijan — whose nation has maintained robust ties with Russia regardless of the with-us-or-against-us Western strain lately — is on the identical web page because the Western media.
That marks a serious shift. No matter whether or not the alleged downing of the airplane was a part of a brand new stage of provocative strain in opposition to Moscow, an accident with Russian air protection missiles, or was some sharp-winged birds, it does seem like doing actual injury to the Azerbaijani-Russian relationship.
And that would have main implications for the South Caucasus the place the pivot state of Azerbaijan is an important transport and logistics hub within the area.
Let’s check out what the Azerbaijan president is saying in regards to the incident and look at what it’d imply for the area.
Aliyev’s Statements
Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev was as soon as described in a Wikileaks US diplomatic cable as an unpredictable hothead just like Sonny Corleone, however he has been something however lately. Whereas calmly enjoying either side, he’s managed to retake Nagorno-Karabakh (no matter one might take into consideration the tactic), turn into a serious fuel provider to the EU, and preserve robust ties with Moscow and workable relationships with different gamers within the area.
His feedback in regards to the airplane crash due to this fact increase eyebrows.
Earlier than the black packing containers are analyzed, Aliyev is placing the blame on Russia, which he says by accident shot down the airplane, continued to make use of digital warfare in opposition to it afterwards, after which tried to cowl it up. He would possibly find yourself being proper, however these are nonetheless daring proclamations coming from the president who only in the near past stood by Azerbaijan’s alliance with Russia. Listed here are the related quotes from his Dec. 29 interview with Azerbaijan Tv at Heydar Aliyev (Ilham’s father) Worldwide Airport:
The details point out that the Azerbaijani civilian airplane was broken from the skin over Russian territory, close to the town of Grozny, and virtually misplaced management. We additionally know which means of digital warfare put our airplane uncontrolled. This was the primary affect on the airplane. On the identical time, because of fireplace from the bottom, the tail of the airplane was additionally severely broken…
The truth that the fuselage is riddled with holes signifies that the speculation of the airplane hitting a flock of birds, which was introduced up by somebody, is totally faraway from the agenda. It’s doable that when the airplane was broken, when it was hit, the pilot might have perceived it as a collision with birds. As a result of it might in all probability by no means have occurred to anybody that our airplane is perhaps fired at from the bottom whereas flying over a rustic pleasant to us. Sadly, nevertheless, some circles in Russia most popular to place ahead this principle. One other regrettable and stunning second for us was that official Russian businesses put ahead theories in regards to the explosion of a fuel cylinder on board the airplane. In different phrases, this clearly confirmed that the Russian aspect wished to cowl up the problem, which, in fact, is unbecoming of anybody. After all, our airplane was hit accidentally. After all, there will be no speak of a deliberate act of terror right here. Due to this fact, admitting guilt, apologizing in a well timed method to Azerbaijan, which is taken into account a pleasant nation, and informing the general public about this – these had been measures and steps that ought to have been taken. Sadly, for the primary three days, we heard nothing from Russia apart from some absurd theories…
Some imagine that the airplane was intentionally despatched astray by floor dealing with providers in Grozny as a result of the airplane was already uncontrolled, and there was a excessive chance it might fall into the ocean. If this had been the case, the cover-up makes an attempt would have been profitable, and the so-called hen principle would have been offered because the most certainly model…we will clearly say in the present day that the airplane was shot down by Russia. This can be a truth, and no-one can deny this truth. Once more, we’re not saying that this was accomplished deliberately, nevertheless it was accomplished.
Sturdy accusations. Notably Aliyev doesn’t as soon as point out Ukrainian drones, which had been being launched in opposition to civilian infrastructure within the area on the time of the airplane downing. Which may assist clarify how Russia by accident shot on the airplane — if that’s certainly what occurred. It’s unclear why Aliyev doesn’t point out the chance that shrapnel from a Ukrainian drone might have brought on the injury to the airplane.
Whereas Aliyev little doubt has public opinion to fret about after such an terrible incident, is it not odd that even when his principle is one hundred pc right, he wouldn’t at the very least attempt to soften the blow in opposition to his ally Russia and current Ukraine as at the very least partially accountable? As a substitute Kiev is essentially getting a free cross as public anger is directed at Moscow.
For what it’s value, Aliyev’s principle of what occurred is identical as US officers quoted in American media. Each might be proper, though Western media little doubt have an curiosity in utilizing the incident to drive a wedge between Baku and Moscow.
The query is whether or not Aliyev is on board with that potential final result? Might he be trying to play an Erdogan position the place he makes use of leverage over Moscow in an analogous means that Ankara has?
Viewing Aliyev’s Feedback Towards Backdrop of Latest Occasions in South Caucasus
Aliyev’s being so fast to forcefully blame Russia is a little bit of a Sonny Corleone response, particularly for somebody who’s performed his playing cards fastidiously lately. Might current occasions within the Caucasus assist clarify his shift? Let’s look at the terrain:
Russian affect has come below growing strain there for the reason that begin of the Ukraine warfare.
Georgia seems to have fought off a coloration revolution try for now. Once more it’s vital to notice the ruling get together in Georgia isn’t anti-US or EU, it merely desires to take care of good ties with Russia and never be became one other Ukraine.
In Armenia it’s one other story. It continues to maneuver out of Russian orbit politically if not economically. A US army officer is now the principle adviser to Armenia’s protection ministry, the French are coaching Armenian items and signing weapons offers, and India has changed Russia as Armenia’s high arms provider. Yerevan can be searching for safety ensures from Brussels and Washington.
Moscow is observing the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace course of from the sidelines (it used to steer the talks), though it nonetheless seemingly exerts fairly a little bit of affect over Baku. The 2 sides are nearing the conclusion of bilateral negotiations on a peace settlement that would have main implications for connectivity on the Eurasian crossroads. Concurrently, Türkiye and Armenia are working to normalize relations, a course of that Ankara ties to Armenia’s talks with Baku.
The US has weaseled its means into these processes by way of Armenia and is trying to exploit the state of affairs to weaken Iran and Russia.
There are grasp ups to offers between Azerbaijan, Türkiye, and Armenia, together with Baku’s demand that Armenia take away an implicit declare on Nagorno-Karabakh in its structure.
Probably the most difficult problem in Armenian-Azerbaijani talks, nevertheless, is the institution of transport hyperlinks and particularly who will management them.
The Battle for Management Over Logistics Corridors within the South Caucasus
The so-called Zangezur Hall – which might stretch parallel to Armenia’s border with Iran and hyperlink Azerbaijan to its Türkiye-bordered exclave of Nakhchivan — is the lacking hyperlink in what could be the shortest land transport route between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. And key to many concerned events isn’t solely the shorter distance however the truth that it’s one of many few routes that totally bypasses Russia.
The hall would even be a key intersection level of different burgeoning North–South and East–West routes.
The Center Hall, for instance, which passes from China by way of Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus, and Türkiye extending to Europe might see main upgrades with the opening of Zangezur.
And so outdoors involvement and strain steadily builds on Armenia and Azerbaijan .
The principle problem holding up talks between the 2 is Level 9 of the trilateral assertion signed between Azerbaijan, Russia, and Armenia in 2020 following the Second Karabakh Conflict, which reads:
All financial and transport hyperlinks within the area shall be unblocked. The Republic of Armenia shall assure the protection of transport communication between the western areas of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic with a view to prepare the unimpeded motion of residents, automobiles and cargo in each instructions. Management over transport communication shall be exercised by the Border Guard Service our bodies of the FSS of Russia.
Azerbaijan continues to insist upon this level, whereas Armenia now not desires Russian border guards current, and as an alternative argues for options like Russia monitoring the hall from afar. How precisely that may be accomplished isn’t but clear.
The Armenian prime minister is making statements about entrusting Zangezur’s safety to international personal forces. These concepts are coming as Armenia removes Russian border guards.
On Wednesday at Armenia’s request, the Russians withdrew from the one official Armenian-Iranian crossing, which adopted the departure of Russian border guards from Yerevan’s Zvartnots Airport in July,. Since 1992 Armenia’s borders with Türkiye and Iran have been the duty of Russian troops.
In the meantime, the variety of EU guards on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border retains increasing.
Each Azerbaijan and Russia are important of the EU mission creep, and Baku continues to insist that Yerevan comply with the deployment of Russian border guards alongside the Zangezur Hall.
Might that be altering?
Any settlement between Baku and Yerevan (and its Western backers) that excludes Russia could be a serious energy play from the Turkic axis and a perceived win for the US-Israel axis as it might sideline Russia and Iran.
How the latter two would reply stays to be seen, however what’s clear is how the Center East conflicts and Ukraine warfare are bleeding into the Caucasus. It’s straightforward to see the way it might turn into a part of a deal that helps briefly ease the tensions among the many conquering events of Syria by persevering with to give attention to areas on overlapping pursuits or get dragged in nonetheless.
Right here’s a quick have a look at key gamers positions on this theater of The Nice Recreation:
Iran
Fairly easy:
Regional peace, safety and stability isn’t merely a choice, however a pillar of our nationwide safety.
Any menace from North, South, East, or West to territorial integrity of our neighbors or redrawing of boundaries is completely unacceptable and a crimson line for Iran.
— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) September 5, 2024
From Iran’s perspective the Zangezur Hall is a nightmare. Neocon suppose tanks in Washington have lengthy dreamed of utilizing Azerbaijan to destabilize Iran — as they’ve for weakening Russian affect within the South Caucasus. Ethnic Azeri residents who’re estimated to make up 15 p.c of the Iranian inhabitants.
Tehran’s considerations about Azerbaijan are additional aggravated by Tel Aviv’s help to Azerbaijan (extra on that beneath). Tehran additionally faces the next financial fallout from the Zangezur Hall, based on Safety & Defence Quarterly::
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Azerbaijan used to pay 15 p.c of the 350 million cubic metres of fuel despatched to Nakhchivan by way of Iran as a transit charge. With the opening of the brand new hall, Iran might lose this revenue.
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An settlement on sale of fuel was signed between Türkiye and Iran in 1996. Primarily based on that settlement, Türkiye has been shopping for fuel from Iran for years. Whereas Türkiye pays Iran US$490 for a thousand cubic metres of fuel, it may purchase the identical quantity from Azerbaijan for US$335.
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If a fuel pipeline is constructed from Azerbaijan to Türkiye by way of this hall, Iran’s lack of fuel income could also be large.
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The deliberate fuel pipeline challenge from Turkmenistan by way of Iran to Türkiye then to Europe was frozen in 2017 due to monetary disagreements. Turkmenistan can now ship this fuel to Europe by way of Azerbaijan.
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The significance of Iran’s pipeline to Armenia has additionally decreased.
The Strategic Council of Overseas Relations in Tehran, whose director is Iran’s former minister of international affairs Kamal Kharazi, condemned the development of the Zangezur hall, indicating that the hall has been launched as NATO’s “Turan hall,” a challenge ostensibly supported by Israel and NATO, which goals to foment ethnic unrest within the areas of Iran inhabited by Turks. As per the aforementioned Council, NATO’s Turan hall is meant to instantly deliver NATO onto the northern border of Iran, the southern border of Russia, and western China and lay the groundwork for his or her disintegration.
Moscow and Tehran are reportedly set to signal their strategic partnership within the coming weeks, which is able to alter the calculus of all concerned events.
Türkiye
Türkiye has been the driving pressure behind lots of the Caucasus cooperation tasks lately, such because the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pure fuel pipeline, the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, and the Trans-Anatolian and Trans-Adriatic Pipelines connecting Azerbaijan to Europe by way of Türkiye.
Erdogan and buddies view the Zangezur Hall as larger than all that and a key piece within the nation’s rise as a Eurasian Nice Energy. Right here’s what Ankara envisions:
- A fuel pipeline from Baku to Türkiye by way of the hall.
- Elevated leverage in negotiating fuel costs with Iran.
- Resurrecting the Trans-Caspian pipeline and transporting that fuel by way of Türkiye to Europe (A pipeline by way of a Nakhchivan hall might assist enhance provides to Europe to upwards of 31 bcm, though that may be years away, and mockingly, on account of its heavy investments within the Azerbaijani oil and fuel sector, one of many larger beneficiaries of any Brussels-Baku offers might be Russia. Azerbaijan is even importing extra Russian fuel itself in an effort to meet its obligations to Europe.
- A logistics hall stretching to China.
- A railroad line from Türkiye to Nakhchivan might make Türkiye a regional transit hub along with an vitality one.
The US-Israel-EU
The US desires to sideline Russia and Iran. The EU does what the US desires.
Due to this fact, the West (together with Türkiye) tries to make sure the movement of assets of the South Caucasus and Central Asia to Europe bypassing Russia and Iran and decreasing their affect, in addition to that of Beijing. As all the time, the US everlasting state is in lockstep with Israel, and it’s vital to notice that regardless of the floor friction between Ankara and Tel Aviv, within the South Caucasus their pursuits as soon as once more align.
Israel helps pan-Turkic ambitions by way of the Caucasus as a result of Tel Aviv views Turkish affect as preferable to that of Iran — even when it doubtlessly units “Better Türkiye” and “Better Israel” up for a future conflict.
Israel too continues to exert affect in Azerbaijan by way of its position because the nation’s principal weapon provider, together with air protection techniques, all the newest in drones and surveillance tech, in addition to cooperation in cybersecurity. Israel can be Azerbaijan’s main oil importer, a commerce which continues to be partially facilitated by Türkiye regardless of the nation’s ban on commerce with Israel — or what Erdogan calls a “Zionist terrorist group.”
China
Beijing desires to increase its affect and open or increase extra commerce routes. China has signed strategic partnership agreements with Tbilisi and Baku and is pursuing main infrastructure tasks, reminiscent of that port in Georgia, which causes a lot heartburn within the US.
Russia
Russia desires to take care of a dominant position within the Caucasus, together with in commerce corridors, which turn into much more vital on account of Western isolation efforts. It was lengthy in Moscow’s pursuits to have a simmering battle between Armenia and Azerbaijan as that allowed it to play peace dealer and preserve a presence, however it’s more and more being pushed out of those processes.
It nonetheless has a army base in Armenia, in addition to peacekeepers, and border management, though their numbers are declining at Armenia’s request, and the army base might be subsequent.
Armenia
The hall could be a boon for Armenia — so long as it doesn’t alienate Russia, which it largely will depend on economically. From the Emirates Coverage Middle:
Russia has additionally saved Armenia in its orbit by way of sustaining financial ties. The commerce turnover between the 2 international locations elevated from $2.6 billion in 2021 to $7.3 billion in 2023. That has considerably ensured the expansion of Armenia’s GDP by 12.6% in 2022 and by 8.3% in 2023. Armenia declares that it’s not inquisitive about breaking relations with the Eurasian Financial Union (EAEU), affirming plans to actively take part within the group although Armenia has frozen its membership within the CSTO and is decreasing its exercise within the Commonwealth of Impartial States (CIS).
Furthermore, the EAEU-Iran free commerce settlement boosts Armenia’s position as the one EAEU member bordering Iran. Shut financial ties additionally give Russia leverage, as many Armenian producers rely upon its market, permitting Moscow to impose restrictive measures if wanted. Moreover, EAEU membership prevents Armenia from signing an Affiliation Settlement with the EU, making a long-term financial deterrent in opposition to turning to the West.
Regardless of the financial reliance on Russia, Armenia has largely been infiltrated by American pursuits and will doubtless be made to go together with a deal that matches with the US-Israel’s objectives.
The bottom line is Azerbaijan, which very similar to Türkiye successfully performs either side. It enjoys ties with Russia primarily in vitality and logistics whereas upping its pure fuel deliveries to the EU. It has a robust weapons-for-energy relationship with Israel that it makes use of to assist stability its relationship with Iran.
Aliyev’s response to the downing of flight J2-8243 might level to a willingness to take some extra probabilities with Russia. Like Erdogan, Aliyev would possibly moderately imagine that Russia wants it at the moment and isn’t in place to take a robust stance or retaliate. Moscow should cooperate with Baku on commerce connectivity as a result of West’s makes an attempt to isolate it, and that’s a reliance Azerbaijan would possibly now be eager to use.
Washington has lengthy tried to resurrect animosity between Baku and Moscow. The US ambassador to Azerbaijan, Mark Libby, who beforehand labored in Baghdad and as deputy chief of mission and chargé d’affaires on the US Mission to the EU amongst different posts, was rapidly dispatched to the nation in December of 2023. One in all his first actions was to go to the Alley of Martyrs devoted to these killed by the Soviet Military throughout Black January 1990 (these outdated USSR wounds are presents that simply maintain giving for the US, e.g.,“The Holodomor Trade” in Ukraine). The place that apparent ploy failed, the newer wound brought on by Russia’s alleged downing of the flight might succeed.
In conclusion, it’s nonetheless too early to reply cui bono, but when actions accompany Aliyev’s accusations then we might be one other win for the US-Israel axis.
