Within the first 6 months of 2026, the Worth & Alternative portfolio gained +8,1% (together with dividends, no taxes) towards a acquire of +6,2% for the Benchmark (Eurostoxx50 (25%), EuroStoxx small 200 (25%), DAX (30%), MDAX (20%), all TR indices).
Hyperlinks to earlier Efficiency critiques may be discovered on the Efficiency Web page of the weblog.
Efficiency assessment:
As talked about within the final 12M assessment, I made a decision to do just one midyear assessment as an alternative of three quarterly ones.
Relative to my European centered Benchmark, the primary 6 months have been fairly Okay. In absolute phrases, as soon as once more I used to be fortunate to not have had a Crystal ball originally of the 12 months.
With the Iran battle, the Strait of Hormuz nonetheless being closed and inflation ticking up, I’d haven’t thought that inventory markets could be up within the first 6 months.
A few of my positions dissatisfied, comparable to EVS, Sensible or the Lively Possession Fund (as soon as once more). Nonetheless, my larger positions, particularly Jensen, Eurokai, Bombardier and DCC did nicely.
For the report, that is the month-to-month growth of the relative efficiency for 6M/2026:
For the primary 6 months, the portfolio carried out as meant: Decrease drawdown in dangerous months but in addition much less upside in good months. As I’ve talked about a number of occasions over time, I really feel higher having lower than market volatility in my portfolio.
Going ahead this might be not solely about emotions but in addition a necessity as I’ll quickly enter the “harvesting” interval in my investor profession. Which implies more cash will stream out of the portfolio than inflows which makes it much more necessary to handle volatility. However extra on that at a later time.
Final 12 months within the 6M assessment, I wrote about modifications to my funding course of. This was the essence of what I needed to realize:
I’ve applied every little thing now in my funding course of. Did it assist ? Laborious to say, as a result of a brief time period efficiency report is topic to quite a lot of random noise.
One factor I can say is that my portfolio would look otherwise if I had not applied these modifications. I won’t have purchased as an illustration extra Eurokai, Jensen and Bombardier. I might need added to EVS as an alternative after the share value dropped or truly offered a few of the bigger positions.
To date, I “really feel” that these modifications assist me focus higher however after all this might transform flawed. To be continued.
Transactions 6M 2026:
The present portfolio may be seen as all the time on the Portfolio web page. Money is at the moment round 9% of the portfolio.
I exited Particular State of affairs Bois Sauvage after an honest run up in addition to SFS which I discovered too costly in relative phrases. I additionally offered my little guess in Sixt frequent shares, SAMSE and Laurent Perrier.
I purchased and offered as Particular Conditions BioNTech and Rocket Web.
New positions have been Frosta, Bachem, Norma and 7C Solarparken. I added to Frosta, Gerard Perrier, Frosta and not too long ago Sixt. I reinvested the gross dividends into Eurokai and Sixt. I decreased my EVS place after the fairly disappointing outlook and the exit of the CFO. As well as, I additionally decreased STEF primarily due to their chopping the dividend. Each, STEF and EVS declined considerably in my inside rating which makes it tough to justify a big place.
As well as, I additionally determined to stop the Lively Possession Capital Fund and despatched a cancellation order which might be executed by 12 months finish.
Present Money ranges are at round 9,3%, the biggest 10 positions sum as much as 56% with the highest 3 totalling 25%,
Random ramblings: AI winners vs. losers, European AC, Volkswagen & Soccer 2026 Worldcup
AI winners & losers
Regardless of some setbacks, the “AI commerce” remains to be sturdy and I believe only a few folks now significantly doubt that the AI revolution is for actual. Generally it’s arduous to imagine that solely 3 ½ years in the past, the world skilled the “ChatGPT” second when the primary model of OpenAI’s chatbot had been launched and this loopy journey began.
What I discover very fascinating is how rapidly the favorites have modified on the “entrance finish” facet of issues. Initially, everybody agreed that OpenAi and Microsoft could be the winners on this sport among the many large Hyperscalers. Microsoft secured early a giant stake in OpenAI and instantly tried to combine it right into a product referred to as “Co-Pilot”. The identical playbook they used as an illustration to crush Zoom with Groups. “Distribution all the time wins” was the early verdict.
Now, It at the moment appears to be like like Alphabet/Google is successful on the retail facet and Anthropic on the B2B facet if the present US Administration will allow them to accomplish that. OpenAI, the “first mover” however appears to be pushing its a lot anticipated IPO into 2027 and Anthropic won’t wish to IPO both, as at any second, the US Administration may attempt to kneecap them once more.
Microsoft’s Copilot is just utilized by individuals who don’t have any different alternative. Regardless of Microsoft having offered 20 million seats, some sources say that solely 20-30% of these seats are used on a weekly (!!) foundation.
Wanting on the “Magazine 6 (ex Tesla)” inventory charts since November 2022, the very best commerce was clearly Nvidia which isn’t any shock. However Meta, which clearly has not been very profitable on the AI enterprise, is clearly quantity 2.
In the meantime the preliminary clear winner, Microsoft, is the worst performer. Even Apple, which up to now has accomplished little or no on the AI facet, is doing higher.
For Meta, a part of the reason is clearly that they have been buying and selling traditionally low-cost in autumn 2022 at round 10x LTM EV/EBIT. Then again, additionally they tripled EPS from 2022 to 2025:
Microsoft as compared traded at round 20x EV/EBIT in Autumn 2022 and is now buying and selling at a barely decrease a number of:
And extra importantly, EPS “solely” elevated by lower than 100% relying on the place you make the cut-off.
So what I wish to say right here is that even trying on the Hyperscalers, beginning valuation and EPS improve are a minimum of equally necessary than the pure story telling.
We’re nonetheless early within the race and up to now, the “first mover benefit” didn’t actually appear to have labored out for Microsoft and AI. I suppose we’ll see within the subsequent years if possibly even Apple’s strategy of wait and see is possibly the very best one ? Prof. Damodaran even praised them with an article referred to as “An ode to restraint”. In my view, the winners of this “platform shift” are clearly not carved in stone and possibly we’ll see fully new gamers within the subsequent few years and don’t neglect the Chinese language gamers.
On the opposite facet, with all of the Capex, the danger on the facet of the Hyperscalers clearly will increase, particularly if they aren’t among the many winners.
European AC & Local weather adaptation
In the course of the current warmth wave, my Twitter feed was stuffed with posts that “Europeans are too silly” or too poor to have AC.
As all the time, generalizations like this are typically extraordinarily silly (except this generalization after all). Whereas I’m scripting this, now we have heavy rains and ~20 levels Celsius and the worst appears to be over for now.
However behind that silly dialogue, there lurks an “unconvenient” fact: The local weather is getting hotter and half a level extra on common in a 12 months sadly doesn’t imply half a level extra every single day however an increasing number of very popular days in summer time.
20, 30 years in the past, there have been possibly 2-3 actually sizzling days in Summer season, now it’s possibly on common 11 and nonetheless rising:
That is surprisingly (or not) an even bigger drawback within the extra reasonable local weather zones like central Europe than within the North or within the South of Europe. Anybody who has truly travelled in Europe for the final 20-30 years is aware of, that the poorer Mediterranean international locations like Portugal, Spain, Italy or Greece are very nicely geared up with AC. Summers have been all the time sizzling in Italy and that’s why Italians are on the Seaside in July and August and solely silly vacationers are strolling round on foot in Rome and complaining.
The issue is clearly rather more in areas like Southern/Center Germany as an illustration. The Rhine basin the place quite a lot of the massive inhabitants facilities are in Germany is usually a comparatively heat area. Historically they’ve all the time been wine rising areas not like as an illustration Bavaria the place I dwell or Northern Germany close to the coast,
Actually sizzling days in a row, the place the temperature doesn’t go down at nights are clearly a pressure with out air-con.
The typical age of residential buildings in Germany is round 40-50 years. Meaning they have been inbuilt a time the place on common there have been solely half the recent days that now we have now. As well as, quite a lot of renovations elevated the “vulnerability” like rising window dimension or remodelling roof storage models into residences.
Many householders that I do know have already put in AC in the previous couple of years. Nonetheless, one of many points in Germany is that greater than 50% of Germans are renters and putting in an AC in a rental unit is rather more tough.
As well as, quite a lot of public buildings nonetheless get constructed with out AC and authorities are actually gradual to retrofit AC in public buildings. This for my part is the true subject: Hospitals, outdated age houses, colleges and so on. should be upgraded as rapidly as potential. On the weekend, there was an “open home” of the model new Hearth Brigade constructing in my neighbourhood and naturally it doesn’t have AC.
Based on some articles, an current program to fund AC in public buildings has been truly cancelled for 2026 by the present Authorities. As all the time, there’s a wrestle between native authorities and the Central Authorities who’s accountable.
However AC is just part of the story. The rather more inconvenient a part of that story is that World Warming is actual, that international locations with comparatively reasonable climates should not nicely ready and that the dearth AC may solely be the tip of the iceberg. Prior to now few years, we already had some actually dry summers that led to fairly dangerous harvests as an illustration.
Local weather adaptation is a a lot larger matter than simply putting in extra AC units. I believe even the hardcore Greens are starting to know that one has to face actuality and can’t solely dream of stopping World Warming however actually make an effort to compensate for the results.
Proper now, everyone seems to be searching for extra publicity to AC producers, however for my part an organization like Thermador which focuses on irrigation elements additionally performs an necessary half in serving to with local weather adaptation. The inventory chart already exhibits some life up to now few days:
Volkswagen
Volkswagen made a giant wave this week that they’re planning to “fireplace” as much as 100K employees. As with the German Nationwide Soccer staff, every and everybody appears to know precisely why Volkswagen appears to be doing so badly.
The primary culprits talked about are sometimes the Decommissioning of the Nuclear crops in Germany or the EU steering to not enable Inside Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles to be constructed from 2035 onwards and the overall laziness of German employees.
From my perspective, Volkswagen troubles are extra a perform of the next elements:
- Legendary dangerous Company Governance: With the Authorities proudly owning a “golden share” and the Porsche/Piech households not likely understanding what to do, the one frequent denominator for a very long time was simply dimension which is rarely an excellent technique in the long run
- Too many manufacturers which can be arduous to distinguish (VW, Audi; Cupra, Skoda…..)
- The mix of US tariffs, JPY/KRW devaluation and cratering gross sales in China
- The unwillingness and lack of ability to totally compete with Chinese language EV makers, decreasing the revenue in China from 5 bn EUR p.a. at its peak to at the moment under 1 bn EUR
- Tough footprint for accessing the US market (no Northern American plant for Audi/Porsche), Volkswagen is just in Mexico)
- The lack to supply cutting-edge software program for his or her “premium vehicles”
- Badly managing their premium Sports activities automobile model Porsche which grew to become an increasing number of just like Audi
If we have a look at the inventory chart of the massive 4 remaining European automobile makers, we will see that now we have two teams: The dangerous and the ugly:
BMW and Mercedes are form of hanging in there however Volkswagen and Stellantis are each struggling. Curiously, till early 2025, Stellantis seemed just like the celebrity, however that didn’t final lengthy.
If we examine Toyota and Ford with the German gamers, we will see that particularly Ford jumped from the Group with Mercedes and BMW into a brand new Group with Toyota.
My guess is that the market is pricing within the safety for Ford in its US house market by way of Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs.
In any case, there is no such thing as a straightforward and fast resolution for Volkswagen. If I’ve counted accurately, Volkswagen (incl. Audi) has ~13 or 14 principal crops in Germany in comparison with BMW which solely has 4. Per worker, BMW and Mercedes generate greater than 2 the quantity of gross sales than Volkswagen.
So if Volkswagen needs to stay aggressive, they should do some slimming down now or issues may even worsen sooner or later.
From a pure tactical perspective, I suppose Administration might have talked about a bigger quantity than what they’re aiming for in an effort to give the Commerce Unions and the Authorities some form of “sacrifice” throughout negotiations.
Total, I see this as a mandatory step. The worst case for my part could be if they aren’t capable of improve productiveness on account of political interference. This may be actually dangerous mid- and long run, not just for Volkswagen however for the entire financial complicated round it.
For the report, I’d ever make investments into Volkswagen. Sure, they’ve quite a lot of fascinating property, comparable to the massive engine producer Everllence, of which they only offered a majority stake for round 7,5 bn EUR, however because the exampüle of ThyssenKrupp exhibits, with a foul Governance this won’t translate into respectable mid- and long-term shareholder returns.
It hink the one remotely fascinating listed asset of the Group could be Porsche (the producer, not the holding), in the event that they have been to turn into extra unbiased from Volkswagen.
Soccer World Cup
With a someday interval to abdomen the loss towards Paraguay, a couple of (possibly unqualified) ideas on the 2026 Phrase Cup:
- Total, the choice to let extra groups play on this closing match was for my part a fairly good one, though I didn’t prefer it within the first place. Loads of fascinating groups which may in any other case not make it to the finals performed rather well (e.g. Paraguay, Cabo Verde or most African groups)
- Though folks don’t appear to love the Hydration breaks, I personally discover it fairly handy to have a fast break to get one thing to drink myself.
- The brand new rule to require an “injured” participant to remain out of the match for 60 seconds is a extremely good rule. It limits these conditions very a lot which have been quite common within the knock-out matches earlier than when one staff had a slim lead and instantly gamers have been falling like flies.
- The standard of the matches on common is fairly good. I watched a couple of matches up to now (with handy beginning occasions) they usually have been all superb and pleasing.
- Generally there doesn’t appear to be a giant ability distinction at total staff degree between the very best 30 groups or so. To date, the principle distinction actually has been the distinctive efficiency of a few of the Superstars who then actually make the distinction
- Groups like Germany (and Italy or Uruguay) are in the mean time actually missing these particular person Superstars which could clarify the dearth of success for these historically sturdy soccer nations.
- The one unfavourable is that for Europeans, the beginning occasions of the matches are typically very inconvenient. Then again, the supply of abstract movies on the subsequent day compensates to a sure extent.