DISCLAIMER: This isn’t Funding recommendation. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!!
Loads has occurred since I printed my Rocket Web write-up from the top of January. Simply as a refresher: I discovered Rocket Web fascinating, regardless of some Governance points because the “sum of the half” worth was considerably increased than the share value again then and that it provided some related & discounted publicity to Elon’s SpaceX IPO.
However earlier than we begin, I’d suggest to click on on the next hyperlink and get David Bowie’s Area Oddity as a pleasant background sound for studying this put up:
David Bowie – Area Oddity (Official Video)
As I write, SpaceX has simply launched its S-1 filing and plans to go public on June tenth. That is what I wrote again then:
My time horizon for this is able to be both the (Rocket) AGM or the precise SpaceX IPO. On Polymarket, the chances are 60% for an IPO earlier than finish of Q3 2026
In contrast with two different “SpaceX Proxies” that I discussed, EchoStar & Alphabet, Rocket truly did fairly OK if we have a look at the chart:
The true Area Famous person: OHB SE
Nevertheless, the actual “Efficiency Rocket” would have been one other German inventory known as OHB:
OHB, a German/Bremen based mostly Satellite tv for pc producer went parabolic regardless of having a extremely small free float after KKR acquired a good portion of the minority free float at 44 EUR in 2023. Initially they wished to delist however then stored the itemizing.
The principle cause for this enhance appears to be that OHB is included in a extremely popular ETF known as Tema Area Innovators ETF with the good Ticker NASA.
This ETF is without doubt one of the quickest rising ETFs ever and at present has a 5% allocation in OHB. At round 1,4 bn AUM, that’s round 60 mn EUR in OHB. As a lot of the OHB shares are held by the founding Fuchs household and KKR (collectively ~94%) and a few specialised “Squeeze out” gamers, there appears to be a fairly onerous squeeze on the few remaining shares.
I additionally guess that you just can’t brief OHB shares. Operationally, OHB has been doing okayish, however nothing that may justify a 130x P/E.
In any case, it is a monster deal for KKR who (clearly) plan to exit whereas its “scorching”. I’m fairly positive that after that exit, OHB shall be a type of “Christmas Tree” charts that we all know from the Covid occasions.
Again to SpaceX
Elon appears to focus on a valuation of 1,75 tn USD, that may be the higher vary of what I assumed in my January sum-of-the half valuation. Nevertheless, “previous” SpaceX shareholders from the start of the yr have been diluted by ~20% after the “merger” of SpaceX with XAi, so we have now to take this into consideration.
I’m positive that Matt Levine will write and say a lot smarter issues than I do in regards to the SpaceX IPO, so listed here are just a few observations:
- The S1 prospectus comprises some very nice photos of rockets
- There are already numerous write-ups & observations about a number of features of SpaceX. A fairly good thread may be discovered for example on Bluesky.
- General, SpaceX is clearly rather more resembling an enormous “Elon Enterprise Fund” than a traditional firm. I feel I learn this in certainly one of Matt Levine’s newsletters about Tesla. Elon has assembled a comparatively loosely related group of firms (XA, Twitter, SpaceX, Starlink, possibly Cursor) with which he can roughly credibly soar on any new hype that can come his approach.
Just like the VC giants Sequoia or A16Z, he has two skills: To lift funding and to draw (a sure kind) of tech individuals with which he can at the least create the looks of driving the subsequent large factor.
If Ai hits a brick wall, Elon finds one thing else like possibly Quantum computing or he’ll merge Neuralink into SpaceX or change into the No 1 in weight problems capsules.
His hardcore followers should not on the lookout for earnings however to experience the subsequent hype
- Loads has been already mentioned in regards to the “complete Addressable Market” figures from the deck which equal the US GDP.
The beauty of each, the socalled “Area financial system” and in addition AI is, that each for the time being appear to have indefinite TAMs. Mathematically, even a small slice of one thing indefinite is price an indefinite sum of money.
In order that’s clearly significantly better than one thing like earth sure EVs the place there’s a clear ceiling or humanoid robots that simply don’t work and the place the Chinese language are clearly significantly better.
I’m fairly positive, Cathy Wooden or somebody related will give you an “evaluation” that SpaceX is price 100X from wherever it’s buying and selling.
- A pleasant contrarian take may be discovered on the “Wertegang” Substack with the great title : SpaceX is a Zero. Right here, my buddy Dirk argues that the SciFi bestseller “The three physique drawback” clearly exhibits that reaching to the celebs is fairly dangerous from a cosmic perspective (Darkish Forrest principle). However I’m fairly positive that if wanted, Elon may even promise to fabricate Pocket Universes in certainly one of his Gigafactories.
- What I’m actually interested by is, if Elon manages to actually hype two firms, Tesla and SpaceX on the similar time. Additionally, how will the standard “Elon retail hardcore supporter” react ? If he/she is an actual Elon fan, he/she can have all of their cash already in Tesla (plus possibly some extra). However after all, they wish to have SpaceX publicity, too. So will they promote their Tesla shares to get a 50/50 allocation ? I feel this shall be fascinating to look at.
Anyway, the SpaceX IPO is nice monetary leisure and may solely be topped by an OpenAI IPO in autumn.
Rocket Web Replace
Within the meantime, Rocket Web has “printed” its 2025 annual report. Curiously they did revaulue their participations upwards to a sure extent. After a lack of -550 mn EUR in 2024, they now present a revenue of 750 mn EUR. It appears that evidently the letter from Scherzer AG to the auditors did have some results.
If I’d be within the Microcap Inventory promotion sport, I’d possibly put up one thing like: “Hidden Perfromance Rocket buying and selling under NAV at 3x P/E ratio”, however economically the proven revenue is fairly meaningless.
On the damaging facet, there shall be no massive money distribution and Rocket appears to mean to make the corporate even much less clear going ahead.
In any case, I up to date my valuation sheet, together with some “bug fixes”. Once more, it is a fast and soiled train and positively not funding recommendation !!!
Right here is the brand new sheet:
The principle adjustments that I made have been some haircuts on Software program firms andTraveloka and adjusting Kalshi and SpaceX for the latest values. For SpaceX I incorporatedthe 20% dilution from XAi and a brand new vary of 1750 to 2000 mn USD as valuation. For Kalshi I used the 22 bn valuation and implying an extra dilution of 10% from the YE 2025 quantity.
This can be a fast comparability between my previous and the brand new train:
We will see that the Upside NAV is kind of the identical at 53 EUR per share vs. 54,5EUR regardless of the “haircuts” utilized to Software program, however the draw back valuation is singinifcantly increased, primarily due to the anticipated valuation of SpaceX at theIPO and the latest Kalshi spherical which was solely a hearsay in January.
The upside to the NAV is after all decrease, because the shares gained ~+30% because the write-up.
As talked about at first, I’ll hold the shares till the IPO hoping for some extra irrational exuberance across the SpaceX IPO. Until I’ll change my thoughts earlier 😉